Jhaveri Ravi, Grant William, Kauf Teresa L, McHutchison John
Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Pediatrics, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC 27705, USA.
J Pediatr. 2006 Mar;148(3):353-8. doi: 10.1016/j.jpeds.2005.10.031.
To quantify the burden of pediatric hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease over the coming decade.
Using national Census results and published and unpublished data, we constructed estimates of HCV prevalence, incidence, rate of vertical transmission, sustained viral response (SVR), and severe complications of infection. Using these figures, we generated a projection model for pediatric HCV outcomes, and we then performed a sensitivity analysis by altering the rates of fibrosis development and SVR.
A prevalence of 23,048 to 42,296 pediatric patients with chronic HCV combined with 7200 new cases from vertical transmission was used for further calculations. Over the next decade, estimated screening costs were 26 million US dollars, monitoring costs ranged from 117 million US dollars to 206 million US dollars, and treatment costs ranged from 56 million US dollars to 104 million US dollars.
To date, pediatric HCV has received relatively little attention, but it will have a significant economic impact over the next 10 years if changes in practice are not made.
量化未来十年儿童丙型肝炎病毒（HCV）疾病的负担。
利用全国人口普查结果以及已发表和未发表的数据，我们构建了HCV患病率、发病率、垂直传播率、持续病毒学应答（SVR）和感染严重并发症的估计值。利用这些数据，我们生成了儿童HCV转归的预测模型，然后通过改变纤维化发展率和SVR进行敏感性分析。
将23,048至42,296例慢性HCV儿童患者的患病率与7200例垂直传播新病例用于进一步计算。在接下来的十年中，估计筛查成本为2600万美元，监测成本在1.17亿美元至2.06亿美元之间，治疗成本在5600万美元至1.04亿美元之间。
迄今为止，儿童HCV受到的关注相对较少，但如果不改变医疗实践，它将在未来10年产生重大经济影响。
