Kiker Gregory A, Bridges Todd S, Varghese Arun, Seager P Thomas P, Linkov Igor
U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Environmental Laboratory, 3909 Halls Ferry Road, Vicksburg, Mississippi 39180, USA.
Integr Environ Assess Manag. 2005 Apr;1(2):95-108. doi: 10.1897/IEAM_2004a-015.1.
Decision making in environmental projects can be complex and seemingly intractable, principally because of the inherent trade-offs between sociopolitical, environmental, ecological, and economic factors. The selection of appropriate remedial and abatement strategies for contaminated sites, land use planning, and regulatory processes often involves multiple additional criteria such as the distribution of costs and benefits, environmental impacts for different populations, safety, ecological risk, or human values. Some of these criteria cannot be easily condensed into a monetary value, partly because environmental concerns often involve ethical and moral principles that may not be related to any economic use or value. Furthermore, even if it were possible to aggregate multiple criteria rankings into a common unit, this approach would not always be desirable because the ability to track conflicting stakeholder preferences may be lost in the process. Consequently, selecting from among many different alternatives often involves making trade-offs that fail to satisfy 1 or more stakeholder groups. Nevertheless, considerable research in the area of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has made available practical methods for applying scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex multicriteria problems. This paper presents a review of the available literature and provides recommendations for applying MCDA techniques in environmental projects. A generalized framework for decision analysis is proposed to highlight the fundamental ingredients for more structured and tractable environmental decision making.
环境项目中的决策可能很复杂且看似棘手,主要是因为社会政治、环境、生态和经济因素之间存在内在的权衡。为受污染场地选择合适的修复和减排策略、土地利用规划以及监管过程通常涉及多个额外标准,如成本和效益的分配、对不同人群的环境影响、安全性、生态风险或人类价值观。其中一些标准不易浓缩为货币价值,部分原因是环境问题往往涉及可能与任何经济用途或价值无关的伦理和道德原则。此外,即使有可能将多个标准排名汇总为一个共同单位,这种方法也并非总是可取的,因为在这个过程中可能会失去跟踪相互冲突的利益相关者偏好的能力。因此,从许多不同的替代方案中进行选择通常涉及做出无法满足一个或多个利益相关者群体的权衡。尽管如此,多标准决策分析(MCDA)领域的大量研究已经提供了将科学决策理论方法应用于复杂多标准问题的实用方法。本文对现有文献进行了综述,并为在环境项目中应用MCDA技术提供了建议。提出了一个决策分析的通用框架,以突出更结构化和易于处理的环境决策的基本要素。