Skeie M S, Raadal M, Strand G V, Espelid I
Faculty of Dentistry, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.
Int J Paediatr Dent. 2006 May;16(3):152-60. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-263X.2006.00720.x.
To explore a possible relationship between the caries experience and pattern in the primary dentition at 5 years of age and the permanent dentition at 10 years of age. Further, to examine the possibility of predicting children in a caries-risk group at 5 years verified at 10 years of age.
A sample of 186 children (90 males) were clinically examined as 5-year-olds and re-examined as 10-year-olds by calibrated dentists. A five-graded diagnostic system including enamel caries was used. Bitewing radiographs were taken. A true risk group of children at 10 years were defined as those with at least one dentin or filled lesion on the mesial surface of 6-year molars, and/or on incisors, and/or total DMFS (decayed, missing, and filled surfaces) more than 1 SD above the mean. The prediction was measured in terms of OR (odds ratio), sensitivity/specificity, and receiver operating characteristic curves.
Statistically significant correlations (r=0.5) were found between the caries experience in the two dentitions as well as between the primary second molars at baseline and the permanent teeth at 10 years. 'Primary second molars' and 'all primary molars' were the most powerful predictors for allocation into the risk group (24% of the sample). The highest achieved sum of sensitivity and specificity, 148%, was attained at a cut-off point above two carious surfaces in enamel and/or dentin in primary second molars.
Statistically significant relationship in disease between the dentitions was found. More than two surfaces with caries experience in primary second molars are suggested as a clinically useful predictor at 5 years of age for being at high risk at age 10.
探讨5岁时乳牙列的龋病经历和模式与10岁时恒牙列之间可能存在的关系。此外，研究预测5岁时处于龋病风险组的儿童在10岁时是否仍处于该风险组的可能性。
选取186名儿童（90名男性）作为样本，由经过校准的牙医在他们5岁时进行临床检查，并在10岁时再次检查。采用包括釉质龋的五级诊断系统。拍摄咬合翼片。将10岁时真正的高风险儿童定义为那些在6岁磨牙的近中面、和/或切牙上至少有一个牙本质或充填病变，和/或总龋失补牙面数（DMFS）高于平均值1个标准差以上的儿童。通过比值比（OR）、敏感度/特异度和受试者工作特征曲线来衡量预测情况。
在两个牙列的龋病经历之间以及基线时的乳牙第二磨牙与10岁时的恒牙之间发现了具有统计学意义的相关性（r = 0.5）。“乳牙第二磨牙”和“所有乳牙磨牙”是分配到风险组的最有力预测因素（占样本的24%）。当乳牙第二磨牙釉质和/或牙本质中龋面数的截断点高于两个时，敏感度和特异度的最高总和达到了148%。
发现两个牙列在疾病方面存在具有统计学意义的关系。乳牙第二磨牙有超过两个龋面的经历被认为是5岁时预测10岁时高风险的一个临床有用指标。
