More doctors, but not enough: Australian medical workforce supply 2001-2012.

OBJECTIVE

To project the future size of the Australian medical workforce, from 2001 to 2012.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Stochastic simulation modelling of the Australian medical workforce, taking into account recent increases in medical school capacity and trends in the intake of foreign graduates.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Number of full-time equivalent (FTE) medical practitioners per 100,000 persons within various occupation groups from 2001 (baseline) to 2012.

RESULTS

The total medical workforce was projected to rise from 53,384 in 2001 to 67,659 by 2012 (95% CI, 63,924-71,036). On a per capita basis, the number of FTE clinicians was projected to rise from 331 per 100,000 persons in 2001 to 382 (95% CI, 359-403) per 100,000 persons in 2012. The general practice workforce was projected to fall from 133 FTE general practitioners per 100,000 persons in 2001, to 129 per 100,000 persons in 2003, and then remain at around this level through to 2012. The specialist workforce was projected to show steady growth, rising from 162 FTE specialists per 100,000 persons in 2001 to 206 (95% CI, 194-218) per 100,000 persons in 2012.

CONCLUSIONS

The general practice workforce is likely to face continued chronic shortages, necessitating innovative policy responses to ensure that the community's need for primary medical care is met. Retirement rates are a key determinant of workforce supply, suggesting a need to encourage general practitioners to remain active as long as they remain effective. Further refinement of stochastic models will help facilitate a more proactive approach to workforce planning.