Both Christiaan, Bouwhuis Sandra, Lessells C M, Visser Marcel E
Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), PO Box 40, 6666ZG Heteren, The Netherlands.
Nature. 2006 May 4;441(7089):81-3. doi: 10.1038/nature04539.
Phenological responses to climate change differ across trophic levels, which may lead to birds failing to breed at the time of maximal food abundance. Here we investigate the population consequences of such mistiming in the migratory pied flycatcher, Ficedula hypoleuca. In a comparison of nine Dutch populations, we find that populations have declined by about 90% over the past two decades in areas where the food for provisioning nestlings peaks early in the season and the birds are currently mistimed. In areas with a late food peak, early-breeding birds still breed at the right time, and there is, at most, a weak population decline. If food phenology advances further, we also predict population declines in areas with a late food peak, as in these areas adjustment to an advanced food peak is insufficient. Mistiming as a result of climate change is probably a widespread phenomenon, and here we provide evidence that it can lead to population declines.
物候对气候变化的响应在不同营养级之间存在差异，这可能导致鸟类在食物最为丰富的时候无法进行繁殖。在此，我们研究了这种时间错配在迁徙性斑姬鹟（Ficedula hypoleuca）种群中所产生的后果。在对荷兰九个种群的比较中，我们发现，在雏鸟育雏食物供应季节早期达到峰值且鸟类当前出现时间错配的地区，过去二十年间种群数量下降了约90%。在食物峰值出现较晚的地区，早繁殖的鸟类仍能在合适的时间繁殖，并且最多只有微弱的种群数量下降。如果食物物候进一步提前，我们还预测食物峰值出现较晚的地区种群数量也会下降，因为在这些地区对提前的食物峰值的适应不足。气候变化导致的时间错配可能是一种普遍现象，在此我们提供证据表明它会导致种群数量下降。
