Ronquist Fredrik
Computational Science and Information Technology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4120, USA.
Trends Ecol Evol. 2004 Sep;19(9):475-81. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2004.07.002.
Much recent progress in evolutionary biology is based on the inference of ancestral states and past transformations in important traits on phylogenetic trees. These exercises often assume that the tree is known without error and that ancestral states and character change can be mapped onto it exactly. In reality, there is often considerable uncertainty about both the tree and the character mapping. Recently introduced Bayesian statistical methods enable the study of character evolution while simultaneously accounting for both phylogenetic and mapping uncertainty, adding much needed credibility to the reconstruction of evolutionary history.
进化生物学最近的许多进展都基于在系统发育树上对祖先状态和重要性状的过去转变进行推断。这些研究通常假定树是准确无误已知的,并且祖先状态和性状变化能够精确地映射到树上。实际上,对于树和性状映射往往存在相当大的不确定性。最近引入的贝叶斯统计方法能够在考虑系统发育不确定性和映射不确定性的同时研究性状进化,为进化历史的重建增添了亟需的可信度。