Kang Hai-Yong, Schoenung Julie M
Department of Chemical Engineering & Materials Science, 3118 Bainer Hall, One Shields Avenue, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA.
J Hazard Mater. 2006 Sep 21;137(2):1165-74. doi: 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2006.03.062. Epub 2006 Apr 19.
The objectives of the present study are to estimate future quantities of electronic waste (e-waste) for which appropriate infrastructure needs to be established, and to the estimate the total cost for e-waste recycling in California. Estimation of the future amounts of e-waste as a function of time is critical to effective e-waste management. To generate estimates, we use a time-series materials flow analysis model (MFAM). The model estimates future e-waste quantities by modeling the stages of production, usage, and disposal. We consider four scenarios for the estimation of future e-waste generation in order to consider the effects of exportation outside the State of California and of user preferences to store or to recycle the e-waste. These efforts were further investigated through the use of sensitivity analysis. The results of the present research indicate that the outflow (recycling) amount of central processing units (CPUs) will increase and will reach approximately 8.5 million units per year in 2013, but the outflow (recycling) of cathode ray tube (CRT) monitors will decrease from 2004 in California because of the replacement of CRT monitors by liquid crystal display (LCD) monitors. In 2013, the cost for CPU recycling will be 1.7 times higher than that in 2005. But for CRT monitors, the cost for recycling in 2013 will be negligible. After the State of California enacted the ban on landfill disposal of e-waste, recycling became the most common end-of-life (EOL) option in California. Also, after 2005, the State of California will need more than 60 average-capacity materials recovery facilities (MRFs), to recycle the number of personal computer systems generated, which represents an investment in capital of over 16 million dollars.
本研究的目的是估计未来需要建立适当基础设施的电子垃圾（电子废弃物）数量，并估算加利福尼亚州电子垃圾回收的总成本。将电子垃圾未来数量作为时间的函数进行估算，对于有效的电子垃圾管理至关重要。为了进行估算，我们使用了一个时间序列物质流分析模型（MFAM）。该模型通过对生产、使用和处置阶段进行建模来估算未来的电子垃圾数量。为了考虑加利福尼亚州以外的出口以及用户对存储或回收电子垃圾的偏好的影响，我们考虑了四种情景来估算未来电子垃圾的产生量。通过敏感性分析对这些研究进行了进一步调查。本研究结果表明，中央处理器（CPU）的流出量（回收量）将增加，到2013年将达到每年约850万台，但由于液晶显示器（LCD）取代了阴极射线管（CRT）显示器，加利福尼亚州CRT显示器的流出量（回收量）自2004年起将下降。2013年，CPU回收成本将比2005年高出1.7倍。但对于CRT显示器，2013年的回收成本将可以忽略不计。加利福尼亚州颁布禁止电子垃圾填埋处置的禁令后，回收成为加利福尼亚州最常见的报废（EOL）选择。此外，2005年之后，加利福尼亚州将需要60多个平均容量的材料回收设施（MRF），以回收所产生的个人计算机系统数量，这意味着超过1600万美元的资本投资。
