Lambert James H, Peterson Kenneth D, Joshi Nilesh N
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems, Department of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904, USA.
Accid Anal Prev. 2006 Sep;38(5):925-35. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2006.03.003. Epub 2006 May 30.
Accident analysis involves the use of both quantitative and qualitative data in decision-making. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the synthesis of relevant quantitative and qualitative evidence for accident analysis and for planning a large and diverse portfolio of highway investment projects. The proposed analysis and visualization techniques along with traditional mathematical modeling serve as an aid to planners, engineers, and the public in comparing the benefits of current and proposed improvement projects. The analysis uses data on crash rates, average daily traffic, cost estimates from highway agency databases, and project portfolios for regions and localities. It also utilizes up to two motivations out of seven that are outlined in the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21). Three case studies demonstrate the risk-based approach to accident analysis for short- and long-range transportation plans. The approach is adaptable to other topics in accident analysis and prevention that involve the use of quantitative and qualitative evidence, risk analysis, and multi-criteria decision-making for project portfolio selection.
事故分析在决策过程中涉及定量和定性数据的运用。本文旨在展示如何综合相关的定量和定性证据用于事故分析以及规划大量多样的公路投资项目组合。所提出的分析和可视化技术与传统数学建模一起，有助于规划者、工程师和公众比较当前及拟议改善项目的效益。该分析使用事故率、日均交通量、公路机构数据库中的成本估算以及区域和地方的项目组合等数据。它还利用了《21世纪交通公平法案》（TEA - 21）中概述的七种动机中的两种。三个案例研究展示了基于风险的事故分析方法在短期和长期交通规划中的应用。该方法适用于事故分析和预防中的其他主题，这些主题涉及定量和定性证据的使用、风险分析以及项目组合选择的多标准决策。
