Zhong Xiao-qing, Ji Xiu-jiang, Zhu Hai-yan, Yi Xia-jun, Ren Fang
School of Life Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2006 Apr;27(4):620-3.
This paper aims at the tense situation of energy demand and supply and analysis the current situation and problems of energy supply and demand in Guangzhou. We predict total demand of energy which will be 4534.7 x 10(4) of standard coal in 2010 by using the department analysis method and sequence method, and the balance between supply and demand of energy will be 45,000 thousand tons of standard coal. From the primary conclusions of our empirical analysis and together with the overall environment of energy in Guangdong and China, we think the development strategies of energy in Guangzhou in the future should involve several main points as following: (1) Energy of Guangzhou should base on the overall energy development programming of China and that is, it should depend on the "transmission of electricity from the western to the eastern region", power incorporation of Sanxia, power generated of water energy, nuclear power and new resource. (2) Stop setting up or expending the natural monopoly and resource oriented Huangpu thermal power plant located in the windward direction of summer of Guangzhou which has serious pollution and consumes large quantities of energy. (3) It should not absolutely depend on the coal of the poor mountainous region of Guangdong and small power station and can make full use of the resource potential.
本文针对能源供需紧张形势，分析了广州市能源供需现状及问题。运用部门分析法和序列法预测，2010年广州市能源总需求为4534.7×10⁴吨标准煤，能源供需缺口为4500万吨标准煤。从实证分析的初步结论以及广东和全国的能源总体环境来看，我们认为广州市未来的能源发展战略应包括以下几个要点：（1）广州能源应基于全国能源总体发展规划，即依靠“西电东送”、三峡电力并网、水能发电、核电及新能源。（2）停止建设或扩建位于广州夏季上风方向、污染严重且能耗大的具有自然垄断和资源导向性质的黄埔热电厂。（3）不应完全依赖广东贫困山区的煤炭和小型电站，而应充分利用资源潜力。
