Timpka Toomas, Morin Magnus, Jenvald Johan, Eriksson Henrik, Gursky Elin
Department of Computer and Information Science, Linköping University, Sweden.
AMIA Annu Symp Proc. 2005;2005:729-33.
To analyze the design of a simulation environment for dynamic prediction of influenza transmission in local communities.
The technique trade-off method was used to identify and analyze basic design requirements on a simulation environment for modeling of influenza transmission. Data were collected through literature review and interviews with infectious disease experts. The identified requirements were matched to a set of design issues for the simulation environment,and a high-resolution prototype was implemented.
Basic reproductive numbers for influenza transmission in a set of Swedish municipalities were calculated. Tradeoffs were necessary in the design between a focus on reproductive numbers vs. case fatality proportions, algorithm validity vs. model adaptability, and specificity in population description vs. generalizability.
Computer-based simulations can become important tools for local authorities preparing for influenza outbreaks. Balanced tradeoffs between model detail and public health effectiveness are important in simulation environment design.
分析用于本地社区流感传播动态预测的模拟环境设计。
采用技术权衡方法来识别和分析流感传播建模模拟环境的基本设计要求。通过文献综述和与传染病专家访谈收集数据。将确定的要求与模拟环境的一组设计问题进行匹配，并实现了一个高分辨率原型。
计算了瑞典一组市政当局流感传播的基本繁殖数。在设计中，需要在关注繁殖数与病死率比例、算法有效性与模型适应性以及人群描述的特异性与通用性之间进行权衡。
基于计算机的模拟可以成为地方当局应对流感爆发的重要工具。在模拟环境设计中，模型细节与公共卫生有效性之间的平衡权衡很重要。
