Lopez A D, Mathers C D
School of Population Health, The University of Queensland, Public Health Building, Herston Road, Herston, Brisbane, QLD 4006, Australia.
Ann Trop Med Parasitol. 2006 Jul-Sep;100(5-6):481-99. doi: 10.1179/136485906X97417.
Any planning process for health development ought to be based on a thorough understanding of the health needs of the population. This should be sufficiently comprehensive to include the causes of premature death and of disability, as well as the major risk factors that underlie disease and injury. To be truly useful to inform health-policy debates, such an assessment is needed across a large number of diseases, injuries and risk factors, in order to guide prioritization. The results of the original Global Burden of Disease Study and, particularly, those of its 2000-2002 update provide a conceptual and methodological framework to quantify and compare the health of populations using a summary measure of both mortality and disability: the disability-adjusted life-year (DALY). Globally, it appears that about 56 million deaths occur each year, 10.5 million (almost all in poor countries) in children. Of the child deaths, about one-fifth result from perinatal causes such as birth asphyxia and birth trauma, and only slightly less from lower respiratory infections. Annually, diarrhoeal diseases kill over 1.5 million children, and malaria, measles and HIV/AIDS each claim between 500,000 and 800,000 children. HIV/AIDS is the fourth leading cause of death world-wide (2.9 million deaths) and the leading cause in Africa. The top three causes of death globally are ischaemic heart disease (7.2 million deaths), stroke (5.5 million) and lower respiratory diseases (3.9 million). Chronic obstructive lung diseases (COPD) cause almost as many deaths as HIV/AIDS (2.7 million). The leading causes of DALY, on the other hand, include causes that are common at young ages [perinatal conditions (7.1% of global DALY), lower respiratory infections (6.7%), and diarrhoeal diseases (4.7%)] as well as depression (4.1%). Ischaemic heart disease and stroke rank sixth and seventh, retrospectively, as causes of global disease burden, followed by road traffic accidents, malaria and tuberculosis. Projections to 2030 indicate that, although these major vascular diseases will remain leading causes of global disease burden, with HIV/AIDS the leading cause, diarrhoeal diseases and lower respiratory infections will be outranked by COPD, in part reflecting the projected increases in death and disability from tobacco use.
任何卫生发展规划过程都应以对人群健康需求的透彻了解为基础。这种了解应足够全面,包括过早死亡和残疾的原因,以及构成疾病和伤害基础的主要风险因素。为了真正有助于为卫生政策辩论提供信息,需要对大量疾病、伤害和风险因素进行这样的评估,以指导确定优先次序。最初的全球疾病负担研究结果,特别是其2000 - 2002年更新版的结果,提供了一个概念和方法框架,用于使用死亡率和残疾率的综合衡量指标——伤残调整生命年(DALY)来量化和比较人群的健康状况。在全球范围内,每年似乎有大约5600万人死亡,其中1050万(几乎全部在贫穷国家)是儿童死亡。在儿童死亡中,约五分之一是由围产期原因如出生窒息和出生创伤导致的,因下呼吸道感染导致的死亡比例略低。每年,腹泻病导致超过150万儿童死亡,疟疾、麻疹和艾滋病毒/艾滋病各导致50万至80万儿童死亡。艾滋病毒/艾滋病是全球第四大死亡原因(290万人死亡),也是非洲的主要死亡原因。全球三大主要死亡原因是缺血性心脏病(720万人死亡)、中风(550万人死亡)和下呼吸道疾病(390万人死亡)。慢性阻塞性肺病(COPD)导致的死亡人数几乎与艾滋病毒/艾滋病相当(270万人死亡)。另一方面,导致伤残调整生命年的主要原因包括年轻时常见的原因[围产期状况(占全球伤残调整生命年的7.1%)、下呼吸道感染(6.7%)和腹泻病(4.7%)]以及抑郁症(4.1%)。回顾过去,缺血性心脏病和中风作为全球疾病负担的原因分别排在第六和第七位,其次是道路交通事故、疟疾和结核病。到2030年的预测表明,尽管这些主要的血管疾病仍将是全球疾病负担的主要原因,艾滋病毒/艾滋病是主要原因,但腹泻病和下呼吸道感染将被慢性阻塞性肺病超越,这部分反映了预计因吸烟导致的死亡和残疾人数的增加。
Ann Trop Med Parasitol. 2006
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