Power Thomas Michael
Economics Department, University of Montana, 32 Campus Drive, Missoula, MT 59812, USA.
Conserv Biol. 2006 Apr;20(2):341-50. doi: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00383.x.
The Northwest Forest Plan in the Pacific Northwest sought to stabilize local economies, including local employment and income, by stabilizing the flow of wood fiber from public forests. This is also a common forest management objective in other regions and countries. Because this economic strategy ignores basic market adjustments, it is likely to fail and to unnecessarily damage forest ecosystems. Application of basic economic principles on how markets operate significantly changes the apparent efficacy of efforts to manage local economies by managing timber supply. The emphasis on timber supply tends to ignore the dominant role that the demand for wood fiber and wood products, rather than wood-fiber supply, plays in determining levels of harvest and production. Contemporary economics indicates that markets tend to operate to offset reductions in wood-fiber supply. This significantly moderates the economic cost of reducing commercial timber harvest in the pursuit of environmental objectives. In addition, contemporary economic analysis indicates that the economic links between natural forests and local communities are much broader than simply the flow of commercially valuable logs to manufacturing facilities. At least in the United States, the flow of environmental services from natural forests has increasingly become an amenity that has drawn people and economic activity to forested areas. Attractive site-specific qualities, including those supported by natural forests, can potentially support local economic development even in the face of reduced timber harvests. These market-related adjustments partially explain the Northwest Forest Plan's overestimation of the expected regional impacts associated with reduced federal timber supply and the ineffectiveness of the plan's efforts to protect communities by stabilizing federal timber supply
太平洋西北地区的《西北森林计划》试图通过稳定公共森林的木材纤维流量来稳定当地经济，包括当地就业和收入。这也是其他地区和国家常见的森林管理目标。由于这种经济战略忽视了基本的市场调整，它很可能会失败，并对森林生态系统造成不必要的损害。运用关于市场运作的基本经济原理，会显著改变通过管理木材供应来管理当地经济的努力的表面成效。对木材供应的强调往往忽视了木材纤维和木制品需求而非木材纤维供应在决定采伐和生产水平方面所起的主导作用。当代经济学表明，市场往往会运作以抵消木材纤维供应的减少。这大大减轻了为实现环境目标而减少商业木材采伐的经济成本。此外，当代经济分析表明，天然森林与当地社区之间的经济联系比仅仅是将具有商业价值的原木流向制造设施要广泛得多。至少在美国，天然森林提供的环境服务流动日益成为一种便利设施，吸引了人们和经济活动前往林区。即使在木材采伐量减少的情况下，包括天然森林所支持的那些在内的具有吸引力的特定地点品质，也有可能支持当地经济发展。这些与市场相关的调整部分解释了《西北森林计划》对与联邦木材供应减少相关的预期区域影响的高估，以及该计划通过稳定联邦木材供应来保护社区的努力的无效性。
