Coutinho Evandro Silva Freire, Coeli Cláudia Medina
Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil.
Cad Saude Publica. 2006 Oct;22(10):2249-52. doi: 10.1590/s0102-311x2006001000031.
Probabilistic record linkage methodology has been increasingly used to ascertain outcomes in cohort studies. However, only a few studies have evaluated its accuracy. The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of probabilistic record linkage methodology to ascertain deaths in a cohort of 250 elderly people hospitalized for fractures caused by falls. The vital status of cohort members was determined through household visits conducted at one and six months after hospital admission. Record linkage was used to link records from the cohort to the Rio de Janeiro State mortality database. Deaths identified by the latter process were compared to the results obtained by active follow-up (gold standard). The vital status of 20 cohort members could not be determined by active follow-up. Among the remaining 230, 60 died within 180 days after hospital admission. Record linkage had a sensitivity of 85.5%, specificity of 99.4%, positive predictive value of 98.1%, and negative predictive value of 94.9%. In conclusion, probabilistic record linkage appears to be a useful tool for identifying deaths in cohort studies conducted in Brazil.
概率性记录链接方法在队列研究中越来越多地被用于确定研究结果。然而，只有少数研究评估了其准确性。本研究的目的是评估概率性记录链接方法在确定一组因跌倒导致骨折而住院的250名老年人死亡情况时的准确性。通过在入院后1个月和6个月进行家访来确定队列成员的生命状态。记录链接用于将队列记录与里约热内卢州死亡率数据库进行链接。将后一过程确定的死亡情况与主动随访（金标准）获得的结果进行比较。20名队列成员的生命状态无法通过主动随访确定。在其余230名成员中，60人在入院后180天内死亡。记录链接的灵敏度为85.5%，特异度为99.4%，阳性预测值为98.1%，阴性预测值为94.9%。总之，概率性记录链接似乎是在巴西进行的队列研究中识别死亡情况的有用工具。
