减少禽流感在商业家禽养殖场中传播的关键策略：对传播给人类的启示。
Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: lessons for transmission to humans.
作者信息
Le Menach Arnaud, Vergu Elisabeta, Grais Rebecca F, Smith David L, Flahault Antoine
机构信息
Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) U707, 27 rue Chaligny, 75012 Paris, France.
出版信息
Proc Biol Sci. 2006 Oct 7;273(1600):2467-75. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2006.3609.
Abstract
Recent avian flu epidemics (A/H5N1) in Southeast Asia and case reports from around the world have led to fears of a human pandemic. Control of these outbreaks in birds would probably lead to reduced transmission of the avian virus to humans. This study presents a mathematical model based on stochastic farm-to-farm transmission that incorporates flock size and spatial contacts to evaluate the impact of control strategies. Fit to data from the recent epidemic in the Netherlands, we evaluate the efficacy of control strategies and forecast avian influenza dynamics. Our results identify high-risk areas of spread by mapping of the farm level reproductive number. Results suggest that an immediate depopulation of infected flocks following an accurate and quick diagnosis would have a greater impact than simply depopulating surrounding flocks. Understanding the relative importance of different control measures is essential for response planning.
摘要
近期东南亚地区的禽流感疫情（H5N1型）以及来自世界各地的病例报告引发了人们对全球大流行的担忧。控制禽类疫情可能会减少禽流感病毒向人类的传播。本研究提出了一种基于农场间随机传播的数学模型，该模型纳入了禽群规模和空间接触因素，以评估控制策略的影响。通过拟合荷兰近期疫情的数据，我们评估了控制策略的效果，并预测了禽流感的动态变化。我们的结果通过绘制农场层面的繁殖数来确定高风险传播区域。结果表明，在准确快速诊断后立即扑杀受感染禽群比单纯扑杀周边禽群具有更大的影响。了解不同控制措施的相对重要性对于应对规划至关重要。
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