Shen Jian, Jia Jian-Jun, Sisson G McAllister
Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William and Mary, Gloucester Point, VA 23062, USA.
Water Res. 2006 Oct;40(18):3333-42. doi: 10.1016/j.watres.2006.07.035. Epub 2006 Sep 15.
An estimation of the nonpoint sources of fecal coliform (FC) has been formulated as an inverse parameter estimation problem, using FC observation data from the receiving waters. An inverse algorithm was integrated into the three-dimensional transport model, HEM-3D. The modified Gauss-Newton method was used for the optimal estimation of the loads. The approach is straightforward and requires less effort in modification of the existing hydrodynamic model. Model experiments were conducted to investigate the feasibility of load estimation in a tidal river. The parameter uncertainty and accuracy associated with load estimation are discussed using data sets with different sampling sizes. The inverse model was applied to the tidal Wye River, Maryland, USA, to estimate FC nonpoint sources and to develop an allowable load for the river to attain water quality standards. The model results suggest that the inverse modeling approach is suitable for estimating FC nonpoint sources. The inverse method not only provides an efficient approach to assess the contribution of nonpoint sources, but has the additional advantage of addressing the problems of the uncertainty and error associated with FC simulation in the estuary using hydrodynamic models.
利用来自受纳水体的粪大肠菌群（FC）观测数据，将粪大肠菌群非点源的估算公式化为一个反参数估算问题。一种反演算法被集成到三维输运模型HEM - 3D中。采用改进的高斯 - 牛顿法对负荷进行最优估算。该方法简单直接，在修改现有水动力模型时所需工作量较少。进行了模型实验以研究潮汐河流中负荷估算的可行性。使用不同采样规模的数据集讨论了与负荷估算相关的参数不确定性和准确性。将反演模型应用于美国马里兰州的怀伊潮汐河，以估算粪大肠菌群非点源，并制定该河流达到水质标准的允许负荷。模型结果表明，反演建模方法适用于估算粪大肠菌群非点源。该反演方法不仅提供了一种评估非点源贡献的有效途径，而且还具有解决使用水动力模型在河口进行粪大肠菌群模拟时相关的不确定性和误差问题的额外优势。
