Mann Robert E, Zalcman Rosely Flam, Smart Reginald G, Rush Brian R, Suurvali Helen
Social, Prevention and Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Alcohol Clin Exp Res. 2006 Oct;30(10):1743-51. doi: 10.1111/j.1530-0277.2006.00216.x.
Research has shown a strong link between alcohol use and a variety of problems, including violence. Parker and colleagues have presented a selective disinhibition theory for the link between alcohol use and homicide (and other violence) that posits a causal relationship that is also influenced by other situational and contextual factors. This model is particularly well suited for aggregate-level investigations. In this study, we examine the impact of alcohol factors, including consumption measures and Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) membership rates, on homicide mortality rates in Ontario, and test predictions derived from the selective disinhibition model.
Time series analyses with ARIMA modeling were applied to total, male, and female homicide rates in Ontario between 1968 and 1991. The analyses performed included total alcohol consumption, spirits consumption, beer consumption, and wine consumption. Missing AA membership data were interpolated with cubic splines.
For the total population and males, homicide rates were significantly and positively related to total alcohol consumption and to the consumption of beer and spirits. They were also negatively related to AA membership rates in the analyses involving spirits and wine and positively related to unemployment rates in the analyses involving beer, wine, and total alcohol. Among females, none of the measures were significant predictors of homicide mortality rates.
These data provide important support for the selective disinhibition model and confirm important relationships between per capita consumption measures and homicide mortality rates, especially among males, seen in other studies. Additionally, the results for AA membership rates are consistent with the hypothesis that AA membership and treatment for misuse of alcohol can exert beneficial effects observable at the population level.
研究表明饮酒与包括暴力在内的各种问题之间存在紧密联系。帕克及其同事针对饮酒与杀人行为（以及其他暴力行为）之间的联系提出了一种选择性去抑制理论，该理论假定了一种因果关系，这种关系也受到其他情境和背景因素的影响。该模型特别适合进行总体层面的调查研究。在本研究中，我们考察了酒精因素（包括消费指标和戒酒互助会（AA）会员率）对安大略省杀人死亡率的影响，并检验了从选择性去抑制模型得出的预测结果。
运用自回归积分滑动平均（ARIMA）建模的时间序列分析方法，对1968年至1991年间安大略省的总杀人率、男性杀人率和女性杀人率进行分析。所进行的分析包括酒精总消费量、烈性酒消费量、啤酒消费量和葡萄酒消费量。缺失的戒酒互助会会员数据用三次样条插值法进行了补充。
对于总人口和男性而言，杀人率与酒精总消费量、啤酒和烈性酒消费量呈显著正相关。在涉及烈性酒和葡萄酒的分析中，杀人率与戒酒互助会会员率呈负相关；在涉及啤酒、葡萄酒和酒精总量的分析中，杀人率与失业率呈正相关。在女性中，没有任何一项指标是杀人死亡率的显著预测因素。
这些数据为选择性去抑制模型提供了重要支持，并证实了人均消费指标与杀人死亡率之间的重要关系，这在其他研究中也有体现，尤其是在男性群体中。此外，戒酒互助会会员率的结果与如下假设一致，即戒酒互助会会员身份以及对酒精滥用的治疗能够在总体层面产生可观察到的有益效果。
