Bye Elin K
Norwegian Institute for Alcohol and Drug Research, Oslo, Norway.
Addiction. 2007 Mar;102(3):369-76. doi: 10.1111/j.1360-0443.2006.01701.x.
To assess the aggregate association between alcohol consumption and violence, while controlling for potential confounders.
The data comprise aggregate time-series for Norway in the period 1880-2003 and 1911-2003 on criminal violence rates and per capita alcohol consumption. Possible confounders comprise annual rates of unemployment, divorce, marriage, total fertility rate, gross national product, public assistance/social care and the proportion of the population aged between 15 and 25. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) analyses were performed on differenced data. Both semilogarithmic and linear models were estimated.
Alcohol consumption was associated significantly with violence, and an increase in alcohol consumption of 1 litre per year per inhabitant predicted a change of approximately 8% in the violence rate. The parameter estimate for the alcohol variable remained unaltered after including the covariates both in the semilogarithmic and the linear models. Of the seven covariates included in the models, only divorce was associated significantly with violence rate.
The results suggest that alcohol consumption has an independent effect on violence rates when other factors are controlled for. The results support the assumption of a causal effect of alcohol consumption on violence, and it appears that alcohol consumption is an important factor when we wish to explain changes in violence rates over time.
在控制潜在混杂因素的同时，评估酒精消费与暴力行为之间的总体关联。
数据包括1880 - 2003年以及1911 - 2003年挪威关于刑事暴力率和人均酒精消费量的总体时间序列。可能的混杂因素包括年度失业率、离婚率、结婚率、总生育率、国民生产总值、公共援助/社会照料以及15至25岁人口的比例。对差分后的数据进行自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）分析。估计了半对数模型和线性模型。
酒精消费与暴力行为显著相关，居民人均每年酒精消费量增加1升预示着暴力率将有大约8%的变化。在半对数模型和线性模型中纳入协变量后，酒精变量的参数估计保持不变。模型中纳入的七个协变量中，只有离婚率与暴力率显著相关。
结果表明，在控制其他因素时，酒精消费对暴力率有独立影响。结果支持酒精消费对暴力行为具有因果效应的假设，并且当我们希望解释暴力率随时间的变化时，酒精消费似乎是一个重要因素。
