Ling Min-Pei, Liao Chung-Min
Department of Health Risk Management, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan, ROC.
Environ Int. 2007 Jan;33(1):98-107. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2006.08.006. Epub 2006 Oct 2.
This paper examines the age-specific human health risks exposed to inorganic arsenic through arsenic-contaminated farmed fish/shrimp and groundwater consumptions in arseniasis-endemic areas of blackfoot disease (BFD)-endemic area and Lanyang Plain in Taiwan, based on an probabilistic integrated risk assessment framework. We employ an age-dependent predictive physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model to account for arsenic concentrations in target organs. We reconstruct age-specific dose-response profiles for arsenicosis and arsenic-induced cancers by best fitting a pharmacodynamics-based three-parameter Hill equation model to published epidemiological data from West Bengal and Taiwan. The predicted median arsenic concentrations in age group-specific skin, lung, and bladder ranged from 2.24-5.70, 3.76-9.46, and 5.11-20.71 micro g g(-1) in BFD-endemic area, whereas 4.98-12.04, 8.23-19.92, and 11.07-43.45 micro g g(-1) in Lanyang Plain, respectively. Risk analysis indicates that consumption of arsenic-contaminated farmed fish/shrimp and groundwater in arseniasis-endemic areas may increase threat to prevalence of arsenicosis for all age groups, whereas adults may undergo potential risks of arsenic-induced skin, lung and bladder cancers. We show that peoples in Lanyang Plain are more readily associated with higher morbidities for arsenicosis and skin cancer as well as fatalities for lung and bladder cancers than that of peoples in BFD-endemic area. Here we report the first case in which theoretical human health risks for consuming As-contaminated farmed fish/shrimp and groundwater in the arseniasis-endemic areas are alarming under a conservative condition based on a probabilistic risk assessment framework.
本文基于概率综合风险评估框架，研究了台湾黑脚病（BFD）流行区和兰阳平原砷中毒流行区通过食用受砷污染的养殖鱼/虾和地下水而暴露于无机砷的特定年龄段人群健康风险。我们采用年龄依赖性预测生理药代动力学模型来计算靶器官中的砷浓度。通过将基于药效学的三参数希尔方程模型与来自西孟加拉邦和台湾的已发表流行病学数据进行最佳拟合，重建了砷中毒和砷诱导癌症的特定年龄段剂量反应曲线。在BFD流行区，特定年龄组皮肤、肺和膀胱中预测的砷浓度中位数分别为2.24 - 5.70、3.76 - 9.46和5.11 - 20.71微克/克，而在兰阳平原分别为4.98 - 12.04、8.23 - 19.92和11.07 - 43.45微克/克。风险分析表明，在砷中毒流行区食用受砷污染的养殖鱼/虾和地下水可能增加所有年龄组患砷中毒的风险，而成年人可能面临砷诱导的皮肤、肺和膀胱癌的潜在风险。我们表明，与BFD流行区的人群相比，兰阳平原的人群更容易患砷中毒和皮肤癌，以及患肺癌和膀胱癌死亡。在此，我们报告了首例基于概率风险评估框架，在保守条件下，砷中毒流行区食用受砷污染的养殖鱼/虾和地下水对人类健康的理论风险令人担忧的情况。
