一种用于评估针对大肠杆菌O157的群体水平干预策略的模拟模型。
A simulation model to assess herd-level intervention strategies against E. coli O157.
作者信息
Wood J C, McKendrick I J, Gettinby G
机构信息
Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, King's Buildings, Edinburgh, UK.
出版信息
Epidemiol Infect. 2007 Jul;135(5):749-64. doi: 10.1017/S0950268806007436. Epub 2006 Nov 17.
Abstract
A simulation model of a herd of grazing cattle, which has been developed to provide insight into the infection dynamics of E. coli O157 is described. The spatially explicit model enables the modelling of the infection transmission processes to be realistically addressed under field management conditions. The model is used to explore the efficacy of various potential control strategies in reducing the levels of within-herd infection. These measures include restricting the size of herds, niche engineering, improving housing hygiene and vaccination. While a vaccination strategy remains a hypothetical option, it has the potential to be particularly effective. It is likely that the most successful strategy will involve the implementation of a combination of measures.
摘要
描述了一个放牧牛群的模拟模型，该模型旨在深入了解大肠杆菌O157的感染动态。这个空间明确的模型能够在田间管理条件下切实地处理感染传播过程的建模。该模型用于探索各种潜在控制策略在降低牛群内感染水平方面的效果。这些措施包括限制牛群规模、生态位工程、改善圈舍卫生和接种疫苗。虽然接种疫苗策略仍是一个假设选项，但它有可能特别有效。最成功的策略可能是综合实施多种措施。
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