Rydzanicz Katarzyna, Kiewra Dorota, Lonc Elzbieta
Zakład Parazytologii, Instytut Genetyki i Mikrobiologii, Uniwersytet Wrocławski, ul. Przybyszewskiego 63/77, 51-148 Wrocław.
Wiad Parazytol. 2006;52(2):73-83.
Climate models suggest the strong possibility of range increase of the diseases transmitted by parasitic arthropods, mostly mosquitoes. In predicting processes of malaria and Dengue diseases dispersion the estimation of risk is based mostly on reproduction rate of vector species. These models allow to calculate the critical threshold of host density which is necessary to maintain parasites and pathogens transmission. Such studies based on integrated mathematical modelling indicate widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for mosquito-borne diseases transmission. This predicted increase is the most pronounced at the borders of the endemic areas and at higher altitudes within malaria and Dengue areas. The simulated change in mosquito-borne diseases risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions as well as the effects of socio-economic developments and control disease programs. Apart from mathematical models the sequencing of proteins and DNA of vectors and their pathogens as well as satellite technology (GIS) are taken into consideration. It is supposed that potential impact of global climate change on malaria and Dengue risk can be reduced by constant warning system based on biological monitoring of mosquito vector species and their pathogens. Efficient care system connected with full diagnosis, treatment and prophylaxis of transmission diseases are also required.
气候模型表明，由寄生节肢动物（主要是蚊子）传播的疾病范围很有可能扩大。在预测疟疾和登革热疾病的传播过程中，风险评估主要基于病媒物种的繁殖率。这些模型能够计算出维持寄生虫和病原体传播所需的宿主密度临界阈值。这类基于综合数学建模的研究表明，由于适合蚊媒疾病传播的区域扩大，风险普遍增加。这种预测的增加在流行区边界以及疟疾和登革热区域内的较高海拔地区最为明显。蚊媒疾病风险的模拟变化必须根据当地环境条件以及社会经济发展和疾病控制项目的影响来解读。除了数学模型外，还考虑了病媒及其病原体的蛋白质和DNA测序以及卫星技术（地理信息系统）。据推测，基于对蚊媒物种及其病原体的生物监测的持续预警系统可以降低全球气候变化对疟疾和登革热风险的潜在影响。还需要与传染病的全面诊断、治疗和预防相关的高效护理系统。
