Huang Jinhui Jeanne, McBean Edward Arthur
School of Engineering, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada N1G 2W1.
Water Res. 2007 Jan;41(2):287-94. doi: 10.1016/j.watres.2006.10.027. Epub 2006 Dec 13.
Most chlorine decay models for the bulk phase in a water distribution system consider only chlorine concentration and time. Clark [1998. Chlorine demand and trihalomethane formation kinetics: a second-order model. J. Environ. Eng. 124(1), 16-24] first proposed a two-component second-order chlorine decay model based on the concept of competing reacting substances. A corrected mathematical formulation is developed and, because the recent findings suggested that not all natural organic matter (NOM) is involved in the chlorine decay process, an additional parameter is introduced. A parameter assignment method employing Bayesian statistical analysis incorporating Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) with Gibbs sampling to make inferences, is employed in the estimation of model parameters. Three parameters are estimated for the model, namely the ratio of chlorine to TOC, the chlorine reaction rate, and a fraction factor of TOC which represents the true amount of TOC involved in chlorine decay process. Water samples taken from Goderich in the summer of 2005, are used for estimating the parameters.
大多数关于配水系统中主体相的氯衰减模型仅考虑氯浓度和时间。克拉克[1998年。氯需求和三卤甲烷生成动力学：二阶模型。《环境工程杂志》124(1)，16 - 24]首先基于竞争反应物质的概念提出了一种双组分二阶氯衰减模型。开发了一种修正的数学公式，并且由于最近的研究结果表明并非所有天然有机物（NOM）都参与氯衰减过程，因此引入了一个额外参数。在模型参数估计中采用了一种参数赋值方法，该方法采用结合蒙特卡罗马尔可夫链（MCMC）和吉布斯采样进行推断的贝叶斯统计分析。为该模型估计了三个参数，即氯与总有机碳（TOC）的比率、氯反应速率以及代表参与氯衰减过程的TOC真实量的TOC分数因子。2005年夏季从戈德里奇采集的水样用于估计参数。
