Pocock Stuart J
Medical Statistics Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Clin Trials. 2006;3(6):513-21. doi: 10.1177/1740774506073467.
This article presents some real-life challenges faced by clinical trial Data Monitoring Committees (DMCs), with the aim of clarifying some of the controversial issues that relate to both statistical stopping boundaries and DMC decision-making. Specific attention is given to what constitutes a sensible statistical boundary for stopping a trial early for benefit, bearing in mind that one usually needs proof beyond reasonable doubt of a treatment benefit sufficient to alter future clinical practice. Appropriate choices of stopping boundary for harm and futility are also discussed. The examples serve to illustrate that the practicalities of DMC decision-making require wise judgements based on a totality of evidence, making any statistical boundary just an objective guideline rather than a definitive stopping rule.
本文介绍了临床试验数据监测委员会(DMC)面临的一些实际挑战,目的是澄清一些与统计停止边界和DMC决策相关的争议问题。特别关注的是,对于因获益而提前终止试验而言,什么构成合理的统计边界,同时要记住,通常需要有超出合理怀疑的证据证明治疗获益足以改变未来的临床实践。还讨论了针对危害和无效性的停止边界的适当选择。这些例子说明,DMC决策的实际操作需要基于全部证据做出明智判断,使任何统计边界都只是一个客观指导方针,而非确定性的停止规则。