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关于概率的信息在风险决策中何时起作用?

When does information about probability count in choices under risk?

作者信息

Tyszka Tadeusz, Zaleskiewicz Tomasz

机构信息

Leon Kozminski Academy of Entrepreneurship and Management, Centre for Economic Psychology and Decision Sciences, Warsaw, Poland.

出版信息

Risk Anal. 2006 Dec;26(6):1623-36. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00847.x.

Abstract

The question addressed in the present research is whether in naturalistic risky decision environments people are sensitive to information about the probability parameter. In Study 1, we showed that in naturalistic scenarios participants generally revealed little interest in obtaining information about the outcomes and probabilities. Moreover, participants asked fewer questions about probabilities for scenarios containing moral considerations. In Study 2, it was shown that, when supplied with information on probabilities, people could be sensitive to this information. This sensitivity depends on two factors. People were less sensitive to probabilities in scenarios perceived as containing ethical considerations. People were also less sensitive to probabilities when they were faced with a single-choice situation than when they were faced with a series of lotteries with different probabilities. This can be accounted for in terms of the evaluability principle.

摘要

本研究探讨的问题是,在自然主义的风险决策环境中,人们是否对概率参数信息敏感。在研究1中,我们发现,在自然主义场景中,参与者通常对获取结果和概率信息兴趣不大。此外,对于包含道德考量的场景,参与者询问的概率问题更少。在研究2中,结果表明,当提供概率信息时,人们可能会对该信息敏感。这种敏感性取决于两个因素。在被视为包含伦理考量的场景中,人们对概率的敏感度较低。当人们面对单一选择情况时,比对一系列具有不同概率的彩票时,对概率的敏感度也较低。这可以根据可评估性原则来解释。

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