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赌博与准现实情景:寻找概率及降低风险信息的期望

Gambles vs. quasi-realistic scenarios: expectations to find probability and risk-defusing information.

作者信息

Huber Oswald, Huber Odilo W

机构信息

Department of Psychology, University of Fribourg, Route de Faucigny 2, CH-1701 Fribourg, Switzerland.

出版信息

Acta Psychol (Amst). 2008 Feb;127(2):222-36. doi: 10.1016/j.actpsy.2007.05.002. Epub 2007 Jun 29.

Abstract

The paper investigates predecisional information search in risky decisions, specifically information concerning the probability of a negative outcome and whether a risk-defusing operator (RDO) is available. Experiment 1 (54 participants) tested the hypothesis that search for such information is triggered by expectations that it can be obtained in the situation. Cues for the availability of information were manipulated. It was predicted that cues mentioning possible information sources raise expectations and consequently increase search activity. Furthermore, gambles were expected to differ from other real world contexts, with lower expectations for RDOs and higher ones for probabilities. The Method of Active Information Search was employed. The number of questions asked about probability and RDOs in different conditions confirmed the hypotheses. Experiment 2 (36 participants) ruled out the alternative interpretation that the expectation to actually find favorable probabilities or applicable RDOs respectively, rather than the expectation to obtain information, determined information search.

摘要

本文研究了风险决策中的决策前信息搜索,具体涉及有关负面结果概率的信息以及是否存在风险化解算子(RDO)。实验1(54名参与者)检验了以下假设:对这类信息的搜索是由在该情境中能够获取信息的预期所触发的。对信息可获取性的线索进行了操控。预计提及可能信息来源的线索会提高预期,从而增加搜索活动。此外,预计赌博情境与其他现实世界情境不同,对RDO的预期较低,对概率的预期较高。采用了主动信息搜索方法。在不同条件下询问的关于概率和RDO的问题数量证实了这些假设。实验2(36名参与者)排除了另一种解释,即分别实际找到有利概率或适用RDO的预期,而非获取信息的预期,决定了信息搜索。

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