Gossop Michael, Stewart Duncan, Marsden John
National Addiction Centre, Maudsley Hospital, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, UK.
Addiction. 2007 Feb;102(2):301-8. doi: 10.1111/j.1360-0443.2006.01681.x.
The present study represents the first large-scale test of the capacity to predict illicit drug treatment outcomes of an instrument [Stages of Change and Treatment Eagerness Scale (SOCRATES)] purporting to measure processes underlying stages of change. The main hypothesis was that 'taking steps' should be predictive of less frequent use of illicit opiates (heroin and non-prescribed methadone) at follow-up.
The sample comprised 1075 people seeking treatment for drug abuse problems in 54 treatment agencies in England. The study uses a longitudinal, prospective cohort design. Structured interviews were conducted at treatment intake and at 1-year follow-up. Data were collected about illicit drug use (frequency of use of heroin, non-prescribed methadone, cocaine and amphetamines, and non-prescribed benzodiazepines) and other problems.
Results failed to support the hypothesis that taking steps should be associated with less frequent use of illicit opiates at follow-up. No statistically significant associations of any kind were found between readiness for change measures and use of opiates or stimulants at follow-up. A negative association was found between taking steps and benzodiazepine misuse. Readiness for change measures were correlated with heroin use and psychiatric symptom scores at treatment intake.
Readiness for change measures were not associated with illicit drug use outcomes. Of the 12 hypothesized relationships between readiness for change measures and outcomes, our results show only one 'hit' and 11 'misses'.
本研究是对一种旨在测量改变阶段潜在过程的工具[改变阶段与治疗渴望量表（SOCRATES）]预测非法药物治疗结果能力的首次大规模测试。主要假设是，“采取措施”应能预测随访时非法阿片类药物（海洛因和非处方美沙酮）使用频率降低。
样本包括在英格兰54个治疗机构寻求药物滥用问题治疗的1075人。该研究采用纵向前瞻性队列设计。在治疗开始时和1年随访时进行结构化访谈。收集了关于非法药物使用（海洛因、非处方美沙酮、可卡因和苯丙胺以及非处方苯二氮䓬类药物的使用频率）和其他问题的数据。
结果未能支持“采取措施”应与随访时非法阿片类药物使用频率降低相关的假设。在改变准备程度测量与随访时阿片类药物或兴奋剂使用之间未发现任何具有统计学意义的关联。发现“采取措施”与苯二氮䓬类药物滥用之间存在负相关。改变准备程度测量与治疗开始时的海洛因使用和精神症状评分相关。
改变准备程度测量与非法药物使用结果无关。在改变准备程度测量与结果之间假设的12种关系中，我们的结果仅显示1次“命中”和11次“未命中”。
