解读乳腺癌患者的预后情况。
Reading the prognosis of the individual with breast cancer.
作者信息
Blamey R W, Pinder S E, Ball G R, Ellis I O, Elston C W, Mitchell M J, Haybittle J L
机构信息
The Breast Institute, Nottingham City Hospital, Nottingham NG5 1PB, UK.
出版信息
Eur J Cancer. 2007 Jul;43(10):1545-7. doi: 10.1016/j.ejca.2007.01.003. Epub 2007 Feb 22.
AIM
To obtain better survival estimates for the individual than is provided by placement in an NPI group.
METHOD
Consecutive primary operable breast cancers treated at Nottingham City Hospital 1990-1999. Ten year % actuarial survivals plotted for 10 ranges of NPI from 2.0 to 6.9. There is an excellent inverse correlation between median NPI value for each range and survival at 10 years. To enable estimation of survival for all individual values of NPI, a curve fitting technique applied to these results (by G.B.) gave the formula to estimate survival from the individual's NPI score: 10 year % survival for the individual=-3.0079 x NPI(2)+12.30 x NPI+83.84. This gave an r(2) of 0.98.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSION
Greater accuracy in individual survival prediction is obtained by dividing women into 10 groups by NPI scores than in the originally described six groups; rank order of survival in relation to NPI score is preserved. A curve fitting technique has been applied to these data to give a formula for the prediction of 10 year survival for every 0.1 value of NPI.
目的
获得比将个体归入非预后指数（NPI）组所提供的更准确的生存估计值。
方法
对1990年至1999年在诺丁汉市医院接受治疗的连续性原发性可手术乳腺癌患者进行研究。绘制了NPI值在2.0至6.9之间的10个范围的10年精算生存率。每个范围的NPI中位数与10年生存率之间存在极佳的负相关。为了能够估计所有NPI个体值的生存率，对这些结果应用曲线拟合技术（由G.B.完成）得出了根据个体NPI分数估计生存率的公式：个体10年生存率百分比 = -3.0079×NPI² + 12.30×NPI + 83.84。此公式的决定系数r²为0.98。
结果与结论
通过根据NPI分数将女性分为10组，在个体生存预测中获得了比最初描述的6组更高的准确性；与NPI分数相关的生存排名顺序得以保留。已对这些数据应用曲线拟合技术，得出了针对NPI每0.1值预测10年生存率的公式。
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