Markov A V, Korotaev A V
Zh Obshch Biol. 2007 Jan-Feb;68(1):3-18.
Generic diversity dynamics of the Phanerozoic marine animals is far better described by the hyperbolic model, widely used in demography and macrosociology, than by the exponential and logistic models from population dynamics traditionally employed for this purpose. Exponential and logistic models imply zero influence of interactions between taxa on the dynamics of diversity, with the exception of competing for unoccupied ecological space, whereas the hyperbolic model implies non-linear second-order positive feedback in the development of the biota. The hyperbolic human population growth is caused by positive feedback between population size and the rate of technological and cultural development (the more individuals, the more inventors, the more rapid progress, the more rapid growth of the Earth's bearing capacity; the smaller death-rate, the more accelerated growth-rate of the population). Probably there is also non-linear second-order positive feedback between diversity and community structure (the more genera, the higher alpha-diversity, which is defined as average number of genera per community, the more complicated and stable, "buffered" communities, the greater "taxonomic capacity of the environment" and average duration of the existence of genera; extinction rate dencreases, biodiversity growth-rate increases). The simplest mathematical model of biodiversity dynamics based on this assumption is confirmed by empirical data on alpha-diversity dynamics. Progressive complexification of marine communities during the Phanerozoic is also confirmed by the growing evennes of generic abundance distribution in paleocommunities.
显生宙海洋动物的类属多样性动态,用人口统计学和宏观社会学中广泛使用的双曲线模型来描述,要比传统上为此目的而采用的种群动态中的指数模型和逻辑模型好得多。指数模型和逻辑模型意味着分类群之间的相互作用对多样性动态的影响为零,除了争夺未被占据的生态空间,而双曲线模型意味着生物群发展中的非线性二阶正反馈。双曲线型的人口增长是由人口规模与技术和文化发展速度之间的正反馈引起的(个体越多,发明家越多,进步越快,地球承载能力的增长越快;死亡率越低,人口增长率越高)。多样性与群落结构之间可能也存在非线性二阶正反馈(属越多,α多样性越高,α多样性定义为每个群落的属的平均数量,群落越复杂、稳定、“缓冲”,“环境的分类能力”和属的平均存在持续时间就越大;灭绝率降低,生物多样性增长率增加)。基于这一假设的生物多样性动态的最简单数学模型得到了关于α多样性动态的经验数据的证实。显生宙期间海洋群落的逐渐复杂化也通过古群落中属丰度分布的均匀性增加得到了证实。