Connolly S J, Cairns J A
Department of Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.
Am J Cardiol. 1992 Feb 1;69(4):308-13. doi: 10.1016/0002-9149(92)90225-n.
To compare 1-, 6- and 24-hour ambulatory electrocardiograms for prediction of mortality after acute myocardial infarction (AMI), all patients with AMI hospitalized in Hamilton, Ontario during 1 year were identified. There were 683 patients discharged alive after AMI. One-, 6- and 24-hour ambulatory electrocardiographic results were available in 565 patients, and follow-up mortality data at 1 year was available in 560. Mean age of the patients was 64 years; 160 (29%) had previous AMI and 105 (19%) had had congestive heart failure. One hundred and fifty-two patients (27%) were receiving beta blockers, and 31 (6%) were receiving antiarrhythmic drugs. Regression modeling of survival times up to 1 year showed that all 3 durations of recording were univariate predictors of mortality. Using greater than 10 ventricular premature complexes/hour as the criterion of a positive test, neither the 6- nor 24-hour data contained statistically significant residual explanatory power after the 1-hour data were accounted for by the model. The longer durations of recording increased sensitivity at a cost of decreased specificity. The positive and negative predictive values of the 3 durations of recording were virtually identical. The presence of ventricular tachycardia was not a significant predictor of mortality in this population. There appears to be no benefit to ambulatory electrocardiographic recordings greater than 1 hour when they are to be used for prediction of 1-year mortality after AMI.
为比较1小时、6小时和24小时动态心电图对急性心肌梗死(AMI)后死亡率的预测价值,我们确定了安大略省汉密尔顿市1年内因AMI住院的所有患者。共有683例AMI患者存活出院。565例患者有1小时、6小时和24小时动态心电图结果,560例有1年的随访死亡率数据。患者的平均年龄为64岁;160例(29%)曾有过AMI,105例(19%)曾有充血性心力衰竭。152例患者(27%)正在接受β受体阻滞剂治疗,31例(6%)正在接受抗心律失常药物治疗。对长达1年的生存时间进行回归建模显示,所有3个记录时长都是死亡率的单变量预测因素。以每小时室性早搏超过10次作为阳性试验标准,在模型纳入1小时数据后,6小时和24小时数据均无统计学上显著的剩余解释力。记录时长增加会提高敏感性,但代价是特异性降低。3个记录时长的阳性和阴性预测值几乎相同。室性心动过速的存在并非该人群死亡率的显著预测因素。当用于预测AMI后1年死亡率时,超过1小时的动态心电图记录似乎并无益处。