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重新规划危险材料铁路运输的成本和风险影响。

The cost and risk impacts of rerouting railroad shipments of hazardous materials.

作者信息

Glickman Theodore S, Erkut Erhan, Zschocke Mark S

机构信息

Decision Sciences Department, School of Business, The George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA.

出版信息

Accid Anal Prev. 2007 Sep;39(5):1015-25. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2007.01.006. Epub 2007 Mar 8.

Abstract

Rail shipments of hazardous materials expose the population near the routes to the possibility of an accident resulting in a spill. Rail routes are determined by economic concerns such as route length and the revenue generated for the originating carrier. In this paper we consider an alternate routing strategy that takes accident risks into account. We employ a model to quantify rail transport risk and then use a weighted combination of cost and risk and generate alternate routes. In some cases the alternate routes achieve significantly lower risk values than the practical routes at a small incremental cost. While there are generally fewer rerouting alternatives for rail than for road transport, considering the possible consequences of a train derailment we argue that risk should be taken into account when selecting rail routes and that the cost-risk tradeoffs should be evaluated.

摘要

危险材料的铁路运输使沿途附近的居民面临事故导致泄漏的可能性。铁路线路由经济因素决定,如线路长度和始发承运人产生的收入。在本文中,我们考虑一种将事故风险考虑在内的替代路由策略。我们使用一个模型来量化铁路运输风险,然后使用成本和风险的加权组合来生成替代路线。在某些情况下,替代路线以较小的增量成本实现了比实际路线显著更低的风险值。虽然铁路的改道选择通常比公路运输少,但考虑到火车脱轨的可能后果,我们认为在选择铁路线路时应考虑风险,并且应该评估成本与风险的权衡。

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