Vegetative predictors of primate abundance: utility and limitations of a fine-scale analysis.

Determining ecological predictors of primate abundance is important for both theoretical and applied conservation management. For forest primates, research has focused on comparisons of primate abundance and vegetation in different forest blocks or forest compartments with different management histories. However, great variation in primate abundance often occurs within single forests, especially in mountainous areas or in areas with habitat mosaics due to past disturbance. Here we assess, for the first time, the usefulness and limitations of small-scale, within-transect analysis of vegetative parameters as predictors of primate abundance in a very heterogeneous forest habitat in the Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania. Relative abundance of four species of diurnal primates was recorded over a period of 2.5 years by walking three census transects 48 times each. Tree size, density, species composition, and food plants were measured along the same census lines. The fine-scale relationship between primate abundance and vegetative variables was analyzed through generalized linear modeling applied to 58 segments of these three census lines. Each segment was 200 m in length. For all four primate species, we found significant associations between their abundance and selected vegetative variables. The abundance of the endemic and endangered Udzungwa red colobus Procolobus gordonorum was positively related to mean basal area of large trees (diameter at breast height greater than 20 cm) and to the species richness of their food plants. Considering the very great variation in primate abundance that was recorded among segments of the census lines, our approach proved useful in predicting the relationship between primate abundance and small-scale habitat differences. The main limitation of this study, however, was the relatively low-predictive power of the models for some species, especially the Angolan colobus Colobus angolensis. We discuss the potential reasons for this problem and suggest possible improvements for future studies.