Lam Lawrence T
Discipline of Paediatric and Child Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Sydney, Australia.
Int J Environ Health Res. 2007 Feb;17(1):1-8. doi: 10.1080/09603120601124264.
There has been an increasing concern about the effect of climatic change on human health in recent years. It has been suggested that young children are particularly at risk due to the reduced regulating mechanism against extreme climatic changes. However, few studies on the associations between climatic factors and childhood illness, specifically among young children, have been found in the literature. This epidemiological study utilized data collected on all young patients aged less than 6 years who presented to an emergency department for a period of two years. Information on climate and outdoor air quality variables was obtained from the Bureau of Meteorology. Data were analysed with various ARIMA time series models for each common childhood illness. Results suggested that maximum daily temperature was a significant risk factor for fever (t = 5.29, p < 0.001) with a regression coefficient of 0.37 (SE = 0.07) and gastroenteritis (t = 2.69, p = 0.007) with a regression coefficient of 0.10 (SE = 0.04). The UV index was also found to be significantly but negatively related to gastroenteritis (t = -2.37, p = 0.018). However, none of the climatic variables were associated with respiratory problems after adjusting for other air quality variables and infectious disease.
近年来,气候变化对人类健康的影响日益受到关注。有人认为,由于抵御极端气候变化的调节机制减弱,幼儿尤其面临风险。然而,在文献中很少发现关于气候因素与儿童疾病之间关联的研究,特别是在幼儿中。这项流行病学研究利用了在两年时间里收集的所有6岁以下到急诊科就诊的年轻患者的数据。气候和室外空气质量变量的信息来自气象局。针对每种常见儿童疾病,使用各种自回归积分滑动平均(ARIMA)时间序列模型对数据进行了分析。结果表明,日最高气温是发热(t = 5.29,p < 0.001)的显著危险因素,回归系数为0.37(标准误 = 0.07),也是肠胃炎(t = 2.69,p = 0.007)的显著危险因素,回归系数为0.10(标准误 = 0.04)。紫外线指数也被发现与肠胃炎显著负相关(t = -2.37,p = 0.018)。然而,在调整了其他空气质量变量和传染病因素后,没有一个气候变量与呼吸道问题相关。