Battin James, Wiley Matthew W, Ruckelshaus Mary H, Palmer Richard N, Korb Elizabeth, Bartz Krista K, Imaki Hiroo
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, 2725 Montlake Boulevard East, Seattle, WA 98112, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2007 Apr 17;104(16):6720-5. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0701685104. Epub 2007 Apr 5.
Throughout the world, efforts are under way to restore watersheds, but restoration planning rarely accounts for future climate change. Using a series of linked models of climate, land cover, hydrology, and salmon population dynamics, we investigated the impacts of climate change on the effectiveness of proposed habitat restoration efforts designed to recover depleted Chinook salmon populations in a Pacific Northwest river basin. Model results indicate a large negative impact of climate change on freshwater salmon habitat. Habitat restoration and protection can help to mitigate these effects and may allow populations to increase in the face of climate change. The habitat deterioration associated with climate change will, however, make salmon recovery targets much more difficult to attain. Because the negative impacts of climate change in this basin are projected to be most pronounced in relatively pristine, high-elevation streams where little restoration is possible, climate change and habitat restoration together are likely to cause a spatial shift in salmon abundance. River basins that span the current snow line appear especially vulnerable to climate change, and salmon recovery plans that enhance lower-elevation habitats are likely to be more successful over the next 50 years than those that target the higher-elevation basins likely to experience the greatest snow-rain transition.
在全球范围内，人们正在努力恢复流域生态，但恢复规划很少考虑未来的气候变化。我们使用一系列相互关联的气候、土地覆盖、水文和鲑鱼种群动态模型，研究了气候变化对旨在恢复太平洋西北地区一个河流流域中数量减少的奇努克鲑鱼种群的拟议栖息地恢复工作成效的影响。模型结果表明，气候变化对淡水鲑鱼栖息地有很大的负面影响。栖息地恢复和保护有助于减轻这些影响，并可能使种群数量在气候变化的情况下有所增加。然而，与气候变化相关的栖息地退化将使鲑鱼恢复目标更难实现。由于预计该流域气候变化的负面影响在相对原始的高海拔溪流中最为明显，而这些地方几乎无法进行恢复工作，气候变化和栖息地恢复共同作用可能会导致鲑鱼数量出现空间转移。跨越当前雪线的流域似乎尤其容易受到气候变化的影响，在未来50年里，加强低海拔栖息地的鲑鱼恢复计划可能比那些针对可能经历最大雨雪转变的高海拔流域的计划更成功。
