Krahe P, Buiteveld H, Pfister L, Ritz Ch, Sprokkereef E
Federal Institute of Hydrology, Am Mainzer Tor 1, 56002 Koblenz, Germany.
Water Sci Technol. 2005;51(5):23-30.
There has been a marked increase in recent years in the resources dedicated to investigating the problems arising from climate change with respect to hydrology and to some extent to water resource management. Many of these studies are concentrated on the river Rhine basin. In order to review the actual state of scientific findings a workshop, organised by the International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine (CHR), was held on 24 and 25 June 2003. The invited experts discussed the following topics: observed variability in climatic and hydrological data, the development and interpretation of climate scenarios, and assessment of changes in the discharge regimes and the occurrence of hydrological extremes. Based on the workshop the question of whether or not current knowledge and procedural strategies can be used as a basis for future water management was evaluated by an expert group of the CHR. In this paper the process of decision-making with regard to flood management is analysed. Hints are given to convince the decision-makers to take into account the impacts of climate change in water resources management. The special challenges arising in international river basins are discussed.
近年来，用于调查气候变化在水文方面以及在一定程度上对水资源管理所产生问题的资源显著增加。其中许多研究集中在莱茵河流域。为了审视科学研究成果的实际状况，由莱茵河国际水文委员会（CHR）组织的一次研讨会于2003年6月24日至25日举行。受邀专家们讨论了以下主题：气候和水文数据中观测到的变异性、气候情景的制定与解读，以及对流量状况变化和水文极端事件发生情况的评估。基于此次研讨会，CHR的一个专家组对当前的知识和程序策略能否作为未来水资源管理的基础这一问题进行了评估。本文分析了洪水管理方面的决策过程。文中给出了一些提示，以说服决策者在水资源管理中考虑气候变化的影响。还讨论了国际流域中出现的特殊挑战。
