Domecq J J, Nebel R L, McGilliard M L, Pasquino A T
Department of Dairy Science, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg 24061-0315.
J Dairy Sci. 1991 Oct;74(10):3446-53. doi: 10.3168/jds.S0022-0302(91)78534-2.
A microcomputer expert system for dairy herd reproductive management was developed using an expert system shell and Turbo Pascal. The expert system initially examines the broad areas of days open, days to first breeding, detection of estrus, and conception rate to determine whether a problem exists. Interpretations ranging from "excellent" to "severe" were established for each trait. The system then selects an area for evaluation that has the largest negative influence on days open. Once an area has been selected for further evaluation, the expert system utilizes information from the user and DHI reports developed by the Dairy Records Processing Center in Raleigh, NC. These reports identify problems with conception categorized by production, parity, service number, days in milk, breed, and service sire. In addition, questions are presented by the expert system to isolate problems of accuracy of data, use of natural service, semen handling, AI technique, detection of estrus, signs of estrus, and other management areas. Recommendations and suggestions are given. Ten commercial herds having a conception rate less than 40% were evaluated by the expert system and by an extension reproduction specialist who supplied information for the system. Of 100 areas investigated, the expert system and extension specialist identified 47 as potential problem areas, agreeing on 85% of them. Most discrepancies resulted from the specialist applying a less restrictive standard when values were close to a preselected threshold.
利用专家系统外壳和Turbo Pascal开发了一个用于奶牛群繁殖管理的微机专家系统。该专家系统首先检查空怀天数、首次配种天数、发情检测和受胎率等广泛领域，以确定是否存在问题。为每个性状建立了从“优秀”到“严重”的解释。然后，系统选择一个对空怀天数有最大负面影响的领域进行评估。一旦选择了一个领域进行进一步评估，专家系统就会利用用户提供的信息以及北卡罗来纳州罗利市奶牛记录处理中心编制的DHI报告。这些报告按产量、胎次、配种次数、泌乳天数、品种和配种公牛识别受胎方面的问题。此外，专家系统还会提出问题，以找出数据准确性、自然交配使用、精液处理、人工授精技术、发情检测、发情迹象以及其他管理领域的问题，并给出建议。专家系统和一位为该系统提供信息的推广繁殖专家对10个受胎率低于40%的商业牛群进行了评估。在调查的100个领域中，专家系统和推广专家确定了47个潜在问题领域，其中85%的领域意见一致。大多数差异是由于专家在数值接近预先选定的阈值时采用了限制较小的标准。
