Newgard Craig D, Hedges Jerris R, Adams Annette, Mullins Richard J
Center for Policy and Research in Emergency Medicine, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, OR 97239-3098, USA.
Prehosp Emerg Care. 2007 Apr-Jun;11(2):154-63. doi: 10.1080/10903120701205778.
OBJECTIVE: We sought to identify a combination of highly specific clinical variables that could be used to quickly identify a subset of high-need injured patients initially presenting to non-tertiary hospitals. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort analysis of all injured adults 15 years or older meeting state trauma criteria, presenting to one of 42 non-tertiary hospital emergency departments (EDs) from January 1, 1998, through December 31, 2003, and surviving to ED disposition. The outcome included measures of timely resource need: early mortality (within 3 days of ED presentation), major nonorthopedic surgery within 3 days, or intensive care unit stay 2 days or longer. RESULTS: A total of 12,183 persons were included in the analysis, of which 3,643 (30%) patients had one or more of the outcome measures. The variables of greatest importance in identifying high-risk injured adults included (in order or priority): emergent airway intervention (prehospital or ED), initial ED GCS less than 11, ED blood transfusion, initial ED SBP less than 100 or more than 220 mmHg, and initial ED RR less than 10 or more than 32. These five variables had high specificity (89.1%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 88.2%-89.9%) in identifying 37.9% (95% CI 35.0%-40.7%) of high-risk trauma patients presenting to non-tertiary facilities. The positive likelihood ratio (+LR) for early mortality/early resource need increased for patients with one or more (+LR 3.5), two or more (+LR 9.1), and three or more (+LR 16.2) of the five risk criteria. CONCLUSIONS: There are five highly specific clinical risk criteria that may be useful in quickly identifying high-need injured persons presenting to non-tertiary hospitals. If validated, presence of these criteria may justify early higher level of care transfer by emergency medical services or mobilization of trauma resources without waiting for results of further diagnostic studies.
目的:我们试图确定一组高度特异的临床变量组合,用于快速识别最初就诊于非三级医院的高需求受伤患者亚组。 方法:这是一项回顾性队列分析,研究对象为1998年1月1日至2003年12月31日期间,符合州创伤标准、年龄在15岁及以上、就诊于42家非三级医院急诊科之一且存活至急诊科处置的所有成年受伤患者。结局指标包括及时资源需求的衡量指标:早期死亡率(就诊于急诊科后3天内)、3天内进行的非骨科大手术、或入住重症监护病房2天及以上。 结果:共有12183人纳入分析,其中3643例(30%)患者有一项或多项结局指标。识别高危受伤成年人最重要的变量依次为:紧急气道干预(院前或急诊科)、急诊科初始格拉斯哥昏迷评分低于11分、急诊科输血、急诊科初始收缩压低于100 mmHg或高于220 mmHg、以及急诊科初始呼吸频率低于10次/分钟或高于32次/分钟。这五个变量在识别就诊于非三级医疗机构的37.9%(95%置信区间[CI] 35.0%-40.7%)高危创伤患者时具有高特异性(89.1%,95% CI 88.2%-89.9%)。对于有一项或多项(+LR 3.5)、两项或更多(+LR 9.1)以及三项或更多(+LR 16.2)这五项风险标准的患者,早期死亡率/早期资源需求的阳性似然比增加。 结论:有五项高度特异的临床风险标准可能有助于快速识别就诊于非三级医院的高需求受伤人员。如果得到验证,这些标准的存在可能证明紧急医疗服务早期将患者转至更高水平的医疗机构或调动创伤资源是合理的,而无需等待进一步诊断研究的结果。
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