使用发现曲线预测未知物种数量。
Predicting unknown species numbers using discovery curves.
作者信息
Bebber Daniel P, Marriott Francis H C, Gaston Kevin J, Harris Stephen A, Scotland Robert W
机构信息
Department of Plant Sciences, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK.
出版信息
Proc Biol Sci. 2007 Jul 7;274(1618):1651-8. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2007.0464.
A common approach to estimating the total number of extant species in a taxonomic group is to extrapolate from the temporal pattern of known species descriptions. A formal statistical approach to this problem is provided. The approach is applied to a number of global datasets for birds, ants, mosses, lycophytes, monilophytes (ferns and horsetails), gymnosperms and also to New World grasses and UK flowering plants. Overall, our results suggest that unless the inventory of a group is nearly complete, estimating the total number of species is associated with very large margins of error. The strong influence of unpredictable variations in the discovery process on species accumulation curves makes these data unreliable in estimating total species numbers.
估计一个分类群中现存物种总数的常用方法是根据已知物种描述的时间模式进行推断。本文提供了一种针对此问题的正式统计方法。该方法应用于多个关于鸟类、蚂蚁、苔藓、石松、蕨类植物（蕨类和木贼）、裸子植物的全球数据集，也应用于新大陆的禾本科植物和英国的开花植物。总体而言，我们的结果表明，除非一个类群的物种编目几乎完成，否则估计物种总数会有非常大的误差范围。发现过程中不可预测的变化对物种积累曲线有很大影响，这使得这些数据在估计物种总数时不可靠。
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