Oravecz Robert, Sisti Davide, Rocchi Marco B L, Preti Antonio
Psychiatric Hospital Ormoz Ptujska c 33, Slovenia.
J Affect Disord. 2007 Dec;104(1-3):211-5. doi: 10.1016/j.jad.2007.03.009. Epub 2007 Apr 24.
Changes in the suicide rate within one region over time had been hypothesised to correspond to changes in suicide seasonality: a recent investigation from Italy confirmed such an assumption. Data from Slovenia were investigated to further evaluate the links between suicide rates and seasonal amplitude.
A total of 14325 male suicides and 4350 female suicides occurring in Slovenia from 1971 to 2002 were investigated with harmonic spectral analysis to extract their monthly seasonal dispersion by eight-year intervals. Changes in rate over time were analysed with a test for trend based on regression analysis.
The suicide rates of both males and females increased over time, with an evident peak in the 1987-1994 period and a decrease thereafter. Seasonality decreased across time in both sexes; however, no change of the peak was observed over time. The amplitude of the major 12-month cycle was slightly positively related to suicide rates, but the correlation was only statistically significant among females (P=0.0053; males: P=0.22).
Data could not be analysed according to age, the method of suicide, or the diagnosis attributable to the deceased, since this information was not available.
The study confirmed that the seasonal effect on mortality by suicide is positively related to suicide rates, so much so that changes in suicide rates over time correspond to changes in suicide seasonality, but in Slovenia this effect was only evident among females, further pointing towards differences by sex in the mechanics leading to suicide.
一个地区内自杀率随时间的变化被假设与自杀季节性的变化相对应：意大利最近的一项调查证实了这一假设。对斯洛文尼亚的数据进行了调查，以进一步评估自杀率与季节性幅度之间的联系。
对1971年至2002年在斯洛文尼亚发生的14325例男性自杀和4350例女性自杀进行了谐波频谱分析，以每八年为间隔提取其月度季节性离散度。使用基于回归分析的趋势检验分析随时间的率变化。
男性和女性的自杀率均随时间增加，在1987 - 1994年期间有一个明显的峰值，此后下降。两性的季节性随时间下降；然而，未观察到峰值随时间的变化。主要的12个月周期的幅度与自杀率呈轻微正相关，但这种相关性仅在女性中具有统计学意义（P = 0.0053；男性：P = 0.22）。
由于无法获得相关信息，数据无法按年龄、自杀方法或死者归因诊断进行分析。
该研究证实自杀对死亡率的季节性影响与自杀率呈正相关，以至于自杀率随时间的变化与自杀季节性的变化相对应，但在斯洛文尼亚，这种影响仅在女性中明显，进一步表明导致自杀的机制存在性别差异。
