Kramer Greg M, Wolbransky Melinda, Heilbrun Kirk
The Washington Institute, University of Wasington School of Meicine, 9601 Steilacoom Boulevard SW, Tacoma, WA 98498-7213, USA.
Behav Sci Law. 2007;25(4):573-85. doi: 10.1002/bsl.759.
Although most criminal cases are disposed of through the process of plea bargaining, little research has focused on this process, and that research has focused on two variables: probability of conviction and potential sentence. This study examined the plea bargaining process from the perspective of the criminal defense attorney and expands prior research by including a third variable: defendant preference regarding plea. Attorney participants (N = 186) responded to a survey containing a vignette presented in a 2 x 2 x 2 between-subjects design, in which there was systematic manipulation of the following three variables in the context of criminal litigation: likelihood of conviction based on the strength of evidence, defendant preference regarding plea, and potential sentence if convicted. All of these variables were considered important to criminal defense attorneys, and how these variables significantly interacted with each other is explained. We discuss these findings in light of past research and theory that suggested attorneys make plea recommendations according only to probability of conviction and potential sentence, and we discuss implications and directions for future research.
尽管大多数刑事案件是通过辩诉交易程序处理的，但很少有研究关注这一程序，而且该研究主要集中在两个变量上：定罪概率和潜在刑期。本研究从刑事辩护律师的角度审视辩诉交易程序，并通过纳入第三个变量——被告人对认罪的偏好，扩展了先前的研究。律师参与者（N = 186）对一项调查做出回应，该调查包含一个以2×2×2组间设计呈现的 vignette，其中在刑事诉讼背景下对以下三个变量进行了系统操纵：基于证据强度的定罪可能性、被告人对认罪的偏好以及定罪后的潜在刑期。所有这些变量都被认为对刑事辩护律师很重要，并解释了这些变量如何相互显著作用。我们根据过去的研究和理论来讨论这些发现，过去的研究和理论表明律师仅根据定罪概率和潜在刑期提出认罪建议，并且我们还讨论了未来研究的意义和方向。
