Hermanutz K D, Thelen M, Thurn P
Rofo. 1975 Aug;123(2):162-7. doi: 10.1055/s-0029-1230172.
The doubling time (DT) was estimated quantitatively for 16 carcinomas of the breast according to the method described by Collins and co-workers in 1956. This is based on the concept of constant and exponential growth. Observation interval for these mammographically confirmed tumors was between 83 and 1,034 days. The DT was calculated to vary from 45 to 260 days; in order to reach a diameter of 1 cm. after 30 divisions would require a period of 3.7 to 21.4 years. Mammography frequently demonstrates small, clinically occult, tumours. Axillary lymph node metastases are relatively rare from small tumours; growth rate of 70% of breast carcinomas in such that an annual clinical and radiological check-up will prove to be the best means of reducing mortality from carcinoma of the breast. The risk inherent in the radiation resulting from annual mammography is acceptable in women over 35 years. This leaves the problem of rapidly growing carcinomas which would escape early diagnosis by early examinations. Half-yearly examinations of women in high risk groups (1. Previous mastectomy for carcinoma, 2. Biopsy-proven mastopathy with atypical proliferation) comprising about 30% of carcinomas with a short doubling time would appear to be reasonable.
根据柯林斯及其同事在1956年描述的方法，对16例乳腺癌的倍增时间（DT）进行了定量估计。这是基于恒定和指数增长的概念。这些经乳房X线摄影确认的肿瘤的观察期为83至1034天。计算得出DT在45至260天之间变化；为了在30次分裂后达到1厘米的直径，需要3.7至21.4年的时间。乳房X线摄影经常显示出小的、临床上隐匿的肿瘤。小肿瘤发生腋窝淋巴结转移相对少见；70%的乳腺癌生长速度使得每年进行临床和放射学检查将被证明是降低乳腺癌死亡率的最佳方法。对于35岁以上的女性，每年进行乳房X线摄影所产生的辐射风险是可以接受的。这就留下了快速生长的癌瘤问题，这些癌瘤会通过早期检查而逃脱早期诊断。对高危人群（1. 既往因癌行乳房切除术，2. 活检证实为非典型增生的乳腺病）的女性进行半年一次的检查似乎是合理的，这些高危人群约占倍增时间短的癌瘤的30%。
