出生情况与队列规模。
Births and cohort size.
作者信息
de Beer J
机构信息
Department for Population Statistics, Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics, Voorburg.
出版信息
Soc Biol. 1991 Spring-Summer;38(1-2):146-53. doi: 10.1080/19485565.1991.9988778.
Ahlburg (1983, 1986) tested a simple version of Easterlin's relative-cohort-size model of fertility on the basis of U.S. and Canadian post-war data. His conclusion was that the Easterlin model fits the data very well and can therefore be used for calculating forecasts. However, the model he estimated is oversimplified. In this paper an alternative specification is presented. The model is applied to Dutch fertility data. The Easterlin effect is found to affect the movement of births in the Netherlands during the period 1950-85, but a declining long-term trend in average family size proves far more important in explaining post-war births. The model forecasts a rise of births until 2000.
阿尔伯格（1983年、1986年）基于美国和加拿大的战后数据，对伊斯特林生育率相对队列规模模型的一个简化版本进行了检验。他的结论是，伊斯特林模型与数据拟合得非常好，因此可用于计算预测。然而，他所估计的模型过于简化。本文提出了一种替代的设定。该模型应用于荷兰的生育率数据。研究发现，伊斯特林效应影响了1950 - 1985年期间荷兰的出生人口变动，但平均家庭规模的长期下降趋势在解释战后出生人口方面更为重要。该模型预测到2000年出生人口将会增加。
Zotero 插件