Pyle John A, Warwick Nicola, Yang Xin, Young Paul J, Zeng Guang
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2007 Jul 15;365(1856):1727-40. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2041.
The oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere is affected by anthropogenic emissions and is projected to change in the future. Model calculations indicate that the change in surface ozone at some locations could be large and have significant implications for human health. The calculations depend on the precise scenarios used for the anthropogenic emissions and on the details of the feedback processes included in the model. One important factor is how natural biogenic emissions will change in the future. We carry out a sensitivity calculation to address the possible increase in isoprene emissions consequent on increased surface temperature in a future climate. The changes in ozone are significant but depend crucially on the background chemical regime. In these calculations, we find that increased isoprene will increase ozone in the Northern Hemisphere but decrease ozone in the tropics. We also consider the role of bromine compounds in tropospheric chemistry and consider cases where, in a future climate, the impact of bromine could change.
大气的氧化能力受人为排放影响，预计未来会发生变化。模型计算表明，某些地区地表臭氧的变化可能很大，对人类健康具有重大影响。这些计算取决于用于人为排放的精确情景以及模型中包含的反馈过程的细节。一个重要因素是未来自然生物源排放将如何变化。我们进行了一项敏感性计算，以探讨未来气候中地表温度升高导致异戊二烯排放可能增加的情况。臭氧的变化很显著，但关键取决于背景化学状态。在这些计算中，我们发现异戊二烯增加会使北半球的臭氧增加，但会使热带地区的臭氧减少。我们还考虑了溴化合物在对流层化学中的作用，并考虑了在未来气候中溴的影响可能发生变化的情况。
