Cuevas Luis E, Jeanne Isabelle, Molesworth Anna, Bell Michael, Savory Emily C, Connor Stephen J, Thomson Madeleine C
Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK.
Vaccine. 2007 Sep 3;25 Suppl 1:A12-7. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2007.04.034. Epub 2007 May 7.
Epidemics of meningococcal meningitis in Africa have plagued the continent for over a century. These epidemics have a strong association with the environment and efforts are being made to develop models to predict both their location and their incidence. This review describes the predictive models based on climate/environmental information currently available, describes work in progress, and presents evidence that the distribution of the epidemics is changing in a pattern that is compatible with changes in the environment. Discussion of priorities for research in the context of the new conjugate vaccines in Africa is also provided.
非洲的脑膜炎球菌性脑膜炎疫情已困扰该大陆一个多世纪。这些疫情与环境密切相关，目前正在努力开发模型以预测其发生地点和发病率。本综述描述了基于当前可用气候/环境信息的预测模型，介绍了正在进行的工作，并提供证据表明疫情分布正按照与环境变化相适应的模式发生改变。此外，还讨论了在非洲新型结合疫苗背景下的研究重点。
