Schofield Deborah J, Fletcher Susann L
Northern Rivers University Department of Rural Health, The University of Sydney, Lismore, NSW, Australia.
Aust J Physiother. 2007;53(2):121-6. doi: 10.1016/s0004-9514(07)70045-4.
Is the physiotherapy workforce significantly older in 2001 than 1986? What is the cumulative attrition of the workforce to 2001 and what is the predicted attrition by 2026? Is the workforce becoming masculinised? Is the workforce working longer hours?
Observational study using Australian Bureau of Statistics census data from 1986 to 2001 to predict workforce characteristics in 2026.
All physiotherapists who responded to the 1986, 1991, 1996 and 2001 censuses: 5928, 7106, 8788 and 10039 respondents in each year respectively.
The physiotherapy workforce has aged significantly since 1986 (p < 0.001), and women are older than men (p < 0.001). Forty-one percent of the 2001 physiotherapy workforce is predicted to retire by 2026, although around one-third of physiotherapists continue working after age 65. While physiotherapy remains a female-dominated profession, the proportion of males is increasing and has risen from 16% in 1986 to 27% in 2001. Physiotherapists are working longer hours than they did in the past, and while this is partly due to the increasing proportion of males in the workforce, generation X and Y females are also more likely to work longer hours than their predecessors.
The retirement of older, mostly female, physiotherapists may exacerbate existing workforce shortages, particularly in the public and aged care sectors. However, the growing proportion of male physiotherapists and their generally higher workforce participation may go some way to improving labour force capacity overall.
2001年物理治疗师劳动力的年龄是否比1986年显著更大？到2001年劳动力的累计流失情况如何，到2026年预计的流失情况又是怎样？劳动力是否正在男性化？劳动力的工作时长是否在增加？
一项观察性研究，使用澳大利亚统计局1986年至2001年的人口普查数据来预测2026年的劳动力特征。
所有回复1986年、1991年、1996年和2001年人口普查的物理治疗师，每年的回复人数分别为5928人、7106人、8788人和10039人。
自1986年以来，物理治疗师劳动力的年龄显著增大（p < 0.001），且女性比男性年龄更大（p < 0.001）。预计到2026年，2001年物理治疗师劳动力中有41%将退休，不过约三分之一的物理治疗师在65岁之后仍继续工作。虽然物理治疗仍然是一个以女性为主的职业，但男性比例正在增加，已从1986年的16%升至2001年的27%。物理治疗师的工作时长比过去更长，虽然这部分是由于劳动力中男性比例的增加，但X世代和Y世代的女性也比她们的前辈更有可能工作更长时间。
年龄较大的（大多为女性）物理治疗师退休可能会加剧现有的劳动力短缺，尤其是在公共和老年护理领域。然而，男性物理治疗师比例的不断增加以及他们总体上更高的劳动力参与度可能会在一定程度上提高整体劳动力能力。
