关于《生物多样性丧失对海洋生态系统服务的影响》的评论
Comment on "Impacts of biodiversity loss on ocean ecosystem services".
作者信息
Jaenike John
机构信息
Department of Biology, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627-0211, USA.
出版信息
Science. 2007 Jun 1;316(5829):1285; author reply 1285. doi: 10.1126/science.1137730.
PMID:17540884
Abstract
Worm et al. (Research Articles, 3 November 2006, p. 787) used a power relation to predict a global collapse of fisheries by the year 2048. However, a linear regression of the data for the past 40 years yields an excellent fit, with a predicted date of collapse of 2114. Thus, long-term projections of fisheries collapse are highly dependent on the specific statistical model used.
摘要
沃姆等人（《研究论文》，2006年11月3日，第787页）运用幂函数关系预测到2048年全球渔业将崩溃。然而，对过去40年的数据进行线性回归得出的拟合度极佳，预测的崩溃时间为2114年。因此，渔业崩溃的长期预测高度依赖所使用的特定统计模型。
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