Yorkston Emily, Turner Catherine, Schluter Philip J, McClure Rod
School of Nursing, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Inj Prev. 2007 Jun;13(3):191-6. doi: 10.1136/ip.2006.014225.
To develop a generalized estimating equation (GEE) model of childhood injury rates to quantify the effectiveness of a community-based injury prevention program implemented in 2 communities in Australia, in order to contribute to the discussion of community-based injury prevention program evaluation.
An ecological study was conducted comparing injury rates in two intervention communities in rural and remote Queensland, Australia, with those of 16 control regions. A model of childhood injury was built using hospitalization injury rate data from 1 July 1991 to 30 June 2005 and 16 social variables. The model was built using GEE analysis and was used to estimate parameters and to test the effectiveness of the intervention.
When social variables were controlled for, the intervention was associated with a decrease of 0.09 injuries/10,000 children aged 0-4 years (95% CI -0.29 to 0.11) in logarithmically transformed injury rates; however, this decrease was not significant (p = 0.36).
The evaluation methods proposed in this study provide a way of determining the effectiveness of a community-based injury prevention program while considering the effect of baseline differences and secular changes in social variables.
建立儿童伤害率的广义估计方程（GEE）模型，以量化在澳大利亚两个社区实施的基于社区的伤害预防项目的效果，从而为基于社区的伤害预防项目评估的讨论提供参考。
开展一项生态学研究，比较澳大利亚昆士兰农村和偏远地区两个干预社区与16个对照地区的伤害率。利用1991年7月1日至2005年6月30日的住院伤害率数据和16个社会变量建立儿童伤害模型。该模型采用GEE分析构建，用于估计参数并检验干预效果。
在控制社会变量后，干预与对数转换后的伤害率中每10,000名0至4岁儿童伤害数减少0.09例相关（95%可信区间为-0.29至0.11）；然而，这一减少并不显著（p = 0.36）。
本研究提出的评估方法提供了一种在考虑基线差异和社会变量长期变化影响的同时确定基于社区的伤害预防项目效果的方法。
