Sampling almonds for aflatoxin, part II: estimating risks associated with various sampling plan designs.

About 100 nations have established regulatory limits for aflatoxin in food and feeds. Because these limits vary widely from one country to another, the Codex Alimentarius Commission, working through the Codex Committee on Food Additives and Contaminants, has initiated work to harmonize aflatoxin limits and sampling plans for almonds, pistachios, hazelnuts, and Brazil nuts. Studies were developed to measure the uncertainty and distribution among test results for replicate samples taken from aflatoxin-contaminated almond shipments. The uncertainty and distribution information was used to develop a model to evaluate the performance of aflatoxin sampling plans so that harmonized sampling plans can be developed for almonds that reduce the misclassifying of lots in the export trade. Twenty lots of shelled almonds were sampled according to an experimental protocol in which sixteen 10 kg samples were taken from each lot. The observed aflatoxin distribution among the 16 sample test results was compared with 3 theoretical distributions. The negative binomial distribution was selected to model aflatoxin distribution among sample test results because it gave acceptable fits across all 20 observed sample distributions. By using the variance and distribution information, operating characteristics curves were developed to predict the effect of sample size and accept/reject limits on the probability of rejecting good lots and accepting bad lots.