Guis Hélène, Tran Annelise, de La Rocque Stéphane, Baldet Thierry, Gerbier Guillaume, Barragué Bruno, Biteau-Coroller Fabienne, Roger François, Viel Jean-François, Mauny Frédéric
Department of Public Health, Biostatistics and Epidemiology Unit, Faculty of Medicine, St. Jacques University Medical Center, 2 place St. Jacques, 25030 Besançon Cedex, France.
Vet Res. 2007 Sep-Oct;38(5):669-83. doi: 10.1051/vetres:2007025. Epub 2007 Jun 23.
The recent and rapid spread in the Mediterranean Basin of bluetongue, a viral disease of ruminants transmitted by some species of Culicoides (biting midges), highlights the necessity of determining the conditions of its emergence. This study uses high spatial resolution satellite imagery and methods from landscape ecology science to identify environmental parameters related to bluetongue occurrence in Corsica, a French Mediterranean island where the disease occurred for the first time in 2000. A set of environmental variables recorded in the neighborhood of 80 sheep farms were related to case occurrence through a logistic regression model computed within three subsequent buffer distances of 0.5, 1 and 2 km. The results reveal the role of landscape metrics, particularly those characterizing land-use units such as prairies and woodlands, as well as farm type, latitude and sunshine to explain the presence of bluetongue. Internal and external validation both indicate that the best results are obtained with the 1 km buffer size model (area under Receiver Operating Characteristic curve = 0.9 for internal validation and 0.81 for external validation). The results show that high spatial resolution remote sensing (i.e. 10 m pixels) and landscape ecology approaches contribute to improving the understanding of bluetongue epidemiology.
蓝舌病是一种由库蠓(吸血蠓)某些种类传播的反刍动物病毒性疾病,近期在地中海盆地迅速蔓延,这凸显了确定其出现条件的必要性。本研究利用高空间分辨率卫星图像和景观生态学的方法,来识别与科西嘉岛蓝舌病发生相关的环境参数。科西嘉岛是法国的一个地中海岛屿,2000年首次出现蓝舌病疫情。通过在0.5公里、1公里和2公里这三个连续缓冲距离内计算的逻辑回归模型,将80个养羊场附近记录的一组环境变量与病例发生情况关联起来。结果揭示了景观指标的作用,特别是那些表征诸如草原和林地等土地利用单元的指标,以及农场类型、纬度和日照,这些因素可以解释蓝舌病的存在。内部验证和外部验证均表明,使用1公里缓冲距离模型可获得最佳结果(受试者工作特征曲线下面积,内部验证为0.9,外部验证为0.81)。结果表明,高空间分辨率遥感(即10米像素)和景观生态学方法有助于增进对蓝舌病流行病学的理解。