Calvete C, Estrada R, Miranda M A, Borrás D, Calvo J H, Lucientes J
Unidad de Sanidad y Producción Animal. Centro de Investigación y Tecnología, Agroalimentaria, Gobierno de Aragón, Zaragoza, Spain.
Vet J. 2009 Nov;182(2):235-43. doi: 10.1016/j.tvjl.2008.06.010. Epub 2008 Jul 29.
Using data from bluetongue (BT) outbreaks caused by viral serotype 4 (BTV-4) in Spain during 2004-2005, a predictive model for BTV-4 occurrence in peninsular Spain was developed. An autologistic regression model was employed to estimate the relationships between BTV-4 presence and bioclimatic-related and host-availability-related variables. In addition, the observed abundances of the main potential Culicoides vectors during 2004-2005, namely Culicoides imicola, Culicoides obsoletus group, and species of the Culicoides pulicaris group, were compared between BTV-4 presence/absence areas predicted by the model. BTV-4 occurrence was mainly explained by bioclimatic variables, although a consideration of host-availability variables led to improved fit of the model. The area of BTV-4 presence predicted by the model largely resembled the core distribution area of C. imicola, and this species was the most abundant Culicoides spp. in predicted BTV-4 presence areas. The results suggest that the spatial expansion of BTV-4 took place only as far as those areas in which C. imicola populations efficiently transmitted the virus.
利用2004 - 2005年西班牙由病毒血清型4（BTV - 4）引起的蓝舌病（BT）疫情数据，建立了西班牙半岛BTV - 4发生情况的预测模型。采用自逻辑回归模型来估计BTV - 4存在与生物气候相关变量和宿主可利用性相关变量之间的关系。此外，还比较了模型预测的BTV - 4存在/不存在区域在2004 - 2005年期间主要潜在库蠓传播媒介，即库蠓、废弃库蠓组和鬃库蠓组物种的观测丰度。BTV - 4的发生主要由生物气候变量解释，不过考虑宿主可利用性变量会使模型拟合度提高。模型预测的BTV - 4存在区域与库蠓的核心分布区域大致相似，并且该物种是预测的BTV - 4存在区域中最丰富的库蠓物种。结果表明，BTV - 4的空间扩展仅发生在库蠓种群能够有效传播病毒的那些区域。
