Njor Sisse Helle, Olsen Anne Helene, Schwartz Walter, Vejborg Ilse, Lynge Elsebeth
Institute of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Øster Farigmagsgade 5, opg. B, DK-1014 Copenhagen K, Denmark.
J Med Screen. 2007;14(2):94-7. doi: 10.1258/096914107781261891.
The objectives of this study was to provide a simple estimate of the cumulative risk of a false-positive test for women participating in mammography screening. To test the method, we used data from two well-established, organized mammography screening programmes offering biennial screening to women aged 50-69 years in Copenhagen and Fyn, Denmark.
We defined the outcome from a screen as being either a false-positive test or not a false-positive test. We then tested whether the outcomes from subsequent screens were independent, and afterwards estimated the risk over 10 screens of a false-positive test, i.e. the risk of getting at least one false-positive test for a woman participating in all 10 screens typically offered in Europe.
The outcomes of subsequent screens were found to be independent. After completion of screening rounds 3-5, the risk of a false-positive test over 10 screens was predicted to be 15.8-21.5% for a woman participating in the programme in Copenhagen, and 8.1-9.6% for a woman participating in the programme in Fyn.
Our study showed that a relatively robust prediction of the risk of a false-positive test over 10 screens can be calculated in a simple way relatively early after the start of a mammography screening programme.
本研究的目的是为参加乳房X线筛查的女性提供假阳性检测累积风险的简单估计。为了检验该方法，我们使用了丹麦哥本哈根和菲英岛两个成熟的、有组织的乳房X线筛查项目的数据，这些项目为50 - 69岁的女性提供两年一次的筛查。
我们将一次筛查的结果定义为假阳性检测或非假阳性检测。然后我们检验后续筛查的结果是否独立，之后估计在10次筛查中出现假阳性检测的风险，即对于参加欧洲通常提供的所有10次筛查的女性来说，至少出现一次假阳性检测的风险。
发现后续筛查的结果是独立的。在完成第3 - 5轮筛查后，预计参加哥本哈根项目的女性在10次筛查中出现假阳性检测的风险为15.8% - 21.5%，参加菲英岛项目的女性为8.1% - 9.6%。
我们的研究表明，在乳房X线筛查项目开始后相对较早的时候，就可以用一种简单的方法对10次筛查中出现假阳性检测的风险进行相对可靠的预测。
