Archaux Frédéric, Bergès Laurent
CEMAGREF Domaine des Barres, F-45290 Nogent sur Vernisson, France.
Environ Monit Assess. 2008 Jun;141(1-3):19-25. doi: 10.1007/s10661-007-9874-0. Epub 2007 Jul 21.
Biodiversity monitoring surveys are rarely optimised statistically before being initiated. Here, we optimised the monitoring of plants in a temperate forest. The total inventory cost, the number and size of quadrats were optimised to detect a 10% change in species richness over 5 years with alpha = beta = 0.05, using data from ongoing long-term floristic monitoring programs. The procedure showed that the inventory cost would be ca 15% lower using 100-, 200-m2 quadrats instead of 300- or 400-m2 quadrats. Despite the cost associated with the optimisation (e.g. gathering preliminary data) and the imprecise estimates (due to the typically small sample size of the pilot studies), optimisation would often be a better option than expert opinion when designing a monitoring survey.
生物多样性监测调查在启动前很少进行统计优化。在此，我们对温带森林中的植物监测进行了优化。利用正在进行的长期植物区系监测项目的数据，将总清查成本、样方数量和大小进行了优化，以在α = β = 0.05的情况下，检测5年内物种丰富度10%的变化。该程序表明，使用100平方米和200平方米的样方而非300平方米或400平方米的样方，清查成本将降低约15%。尽管优化存在相关成本（如收集初步数据）且估计不精确（由于试点研究的样本量通常较小），但在设计监测调查时，优化往往比专家意见是更好的选择。
